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Callum’s Week 11

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Hello! Welcome back to another edition of the Picks Six. Last week, we had some good (both Overs), some bad (Nick Chubb running out at the 1yd line…), and an 11-2 record in the Full English section! Pretty good. This week, there are genuinely the most games for a while where I’m scratching my head saying “I really don’t know which way I think this will go.” This is a dangerous position to be in, because I could either be perfect or awful due to these toss ups. I’m concerned, but excited. Let’s go. 6 sections, lots of picks and tips, have fun and enjoy. 

The 1st & Goal from the 1yd Line. (Season Record: 6-2) 

The Packers tried their best to make us sweat a little on this one last weekend, but managed to repel the surprisingly stubborn Jake Luton and the surprisingly stout Jacksonville defense in the end. We’re on a bit of a roll here in this section – so let’s keep it going!

After a brief one week break… We’re back to picking against the Jets gang!! It’s too easy – but how can you go against it? Justin Herbert has been great in his rookie season, and the Jets have been nothing short of abysmal almost from start to finish. The Chargers aren’t the most normal or reliable of teams – every game with them involved seems to have some weird quirk or another – but they’re more than talented enough to beat New York here. LA Chargers to win.

The 45yd Field Goal (Season Record 1-7)

CURSE YOU, NICK CHUBB. Running out at the ONE YARD LINE? This failure to cover Browns -3.5 ruined many people’s Sundays – not just mine – and also ruined my 2-0 bid in this category last weekend. Fortunately, Alvin Kamara was on hand to FINALLY drag us to a win!! The Saints -10.0 would not be denied, even with a somewhat concerning injury to Drew Brees. 

Anyway – finally – we’re on the board. This week, there are quite a few tight games across the board. I like TWO very slight underdogs. They are listed below:

Packers to win (@Colts)

I’m really unsure why the Colts are favoured here. Yep, they’re riding high off a nice win against the Titans, but their offense hasn’t really been electric this season. They’re relying on their defense to hold the opposition close and allow Rivers and his RBs (mainly) to slowly chip their way down the field. This week, Aaron Rodgers (who WILL have Davante Adams active) comes to town to try and tear down their castle walls. For me, that Packers offense is good enough to breach the Colts’ D. It is a toss up, but I’m leaning Cheese-Head. Packers to win.

Bengals to win (@Washington)

Joe Burrow is a big time player. He’s had an up and down first season in terms of results, but has shown more than enough to get the Cincinnati faithful excited about their future with Joey B as the face of the franchise. Conversely, Washington still seem to be struggling to find their identity. Yes, it’s great to see Alex Smith back starting games. I’m delighted he’s back healthy. However, it does also show that the Football Team are on their third starting QB of the season, and haven’t yet found the stability they would have hoped under first year head coach Ron Rivera. I’m riding the Bengals this weekend, largely because I trust Cincy’s QB, and don’t trust most of Washington’s team at all. Bengals to win.

The Hail Mary Touchdown Treble
(Season Record 0-2, Individual TD Picks 1-6)

This is my longshot from half field. Unlikely, but you never know. A Touchdown scorers Treble.

AB, Ruggs & Andrews all failed to find the endzone last week – frustrating and annoying! This week, we’re riding some Tight Ends to success…

Jonnu Smith (Titans, @ Ravens) – The Ravens HAVE to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. This opens up play action. Smith is very athletic and a great red zone target. I see it. 

Austin Hooper (Browns, vs Eagles) – This is the riskiest leg here, based on the weather and Cleveland leaning on the run, but Baker sure loves a TE target in the end zone. We saw Harrison Bryant catch two from Mayfield a few weeks ago, and Hooper is an elite receiver when given targets. Let’s ride it.

Taysom Hill (Saints, vs Falcons) – The Joker of week 11. You think Sean Payton is going to start his mobile QB and not have a couple QB runs scripted in the game plan for the red zone? No chance. Gimme Taysom to score (and probably throw for another couple too!).

£5 on this treble pays £140 depending on your bookmaker.

The Overs (Season Record: 5-4-1)

2-0!! We went 2-0!! The “Hail Murray” may have stolen the headlines, but Bills vs Cardinals was always guaranteed points, and TB12 on a bounce back against the Panthers didn’t let us down either. It’s nice when both the tips win!! This week…

Over 50.0 (Falcons @ Saints) – THIS is maybe the most intriguing game of the week. I was BUZZING to see Jameis Winston turned loose in Sean Payton’s offense… until they announced he wasn’t starting!? And… Taysom Hill IS?! It’s some strange voodoo down in NOLA… but maybe it might work?! I think Hill has shown enough in flashes to suggest he could be an interesting offensive weapon – best believe I’m starting him in multiple fantasy leagues this weekend – and the Falcons LOVE scoring and conceding points. I have no idea what to expect from Taysom, but I expect points from these two teams.

Over whatever the line is (Lions @ Panthers) – So at the time of writing, this game is “off the board,” which makes including it in my picks very difficult. Anyway – whatever the line is – I like the over. Matt Stafford is confirmed to be playing, looks like Teddy Bridgewater will be also. Both QBs are having good years, and both defenses are fairly suspect. I’d envisage the line being somewhere around the 50 mark, maybe a little below, but I like that. Detroit tried their best to let Washington steal one last week, and even without DeAndre Swift AND Kenny Golladay, they should have enough weapons (I’m looking at you both, TJ Hockenson and Marvin Jones…) to push this total up and over.

(SECRET PICK – I refuse to bet Unders on principle, but the weather is supposed to be bad in Cleveland again this weekend… so Under 47.5 Eagles @ Browns feels like a great pick. BUT life’s too short to bet the under. It really is)

The Parlay (Complete Parlays 0-5, Correct Legs 14-10-1)

3-2 last week… would’ve been 4-1 if not for, y’know… Nick Chubb… The Seahawks laying an egg vs the Rams was a surprise but softened the Chubb blow a bit. Anyway, the parlay…

Browns -3.0 (vs Eagles) – I KNOW, I KNOW, I KNOW. But yes – we’re back on the Browns. No Myles Garrett is a bit annoying, but the rest of that defense has stepped up in recent weeks, and the two-headed monster of Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the run game should be enough to dominate a subpar Philly team. Don’t be surprised if Baker looks good with play action after the run’s been established too. Browns please.

Bengals +1.0 (@ Washington) – As previously mentioned, I believe in Joseph Burrow. I don’t believe in Washington. It’s really that simple. I’m surprised that the Bengals are the underdogs, though I guess the lack of Joe Mixon contributes to that. Washington are the team that just refuse to die; they’re down 14 at half time every week, and end up coming back. This week, I think Burrow will want to outshine Chase Young – a battle of the 1 & 2 picks from last year’s draft – and light the Football Team up. Tee Higgins looks set to play which helps as well. Gimme the Bengals.

Titans +5.0 (@ Ravens) – Lamar needs a bounce back… but I don’t think this is the team he wants to face. The Titans are coming off a mini bye (haven’t played since last Thursday), and completely bamboozled the Ravens in the playoffs last year. There may also be no Calais Campbell for the Ravens run defense, which leaves so much opportunity for Derrick Henry to really start rumbling. The Ravens may well find a way to get some revenge for last year and win this one, but I think Tennessee will keep it close regardless. Take the Titans and the points.

Dolphins -4.0 (@ Broncos) – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Dolphins are roooooooooolling. Now, has Tua played in altitude before? I dunno. Are the Broncos still bang average at best? Absolutely. Brian Flores is putting together a “Coach of the Year” season resume, and the Dolphins should be 7-3 after Sunday. 

Chargers -9.5 (vs Jets) – We’ve already touched on this;I like the Chargers… So, let’s not waste time. Despite the fact that last time out, Joe Flacco pushed the Patriots close… and the Chargers seem incapable of winning a game in normal fashion… which makes this is perhaps the secretly riskiest pick in the parlay this week. That said, it’s still the Jets. They’re 0-9. Justin Herbert wants to come out and make headlines for something other than his haircut. Believe in LA this week.

£10 on this Parlay pays around £270 depending on your bookmaker. 

The Full English (Season Record: 48-18)

A nice 11-2 again last week pushes the season record to a (even if I say so myself) respectable 48-18. A little over 72%. Decent all things considered. 

Here’s the week 11 slate:

Falcons @ Saints – Saints (This is the weirdest game of the week. Who knows what Taysom is going to do, but I believe the Saints are a good enough team to win without Drew Brees).

Bengals @ Football Team – Bengals

Lions @ Panthers – Panthers

Patriots @ Texans – Texans (I think this might be a “Deshaun Watson” game. Texans would be better off if they lost, but Deshaun ain’t up for tanking)

Eagles @ Browns – Browns

Steelers @ Jaguars – Steelers (10-0, perfect season alert, not sure if they make it to 16 wins, but they’ll add a 10th this weekend. 

Titans @ Ravens – Titans

Dolphins @ Broncos – Dolphins

Jets @ Chargers – Chargers

Cowboys @ Vikings – Vikings (But I wouldn’t be surprised if there WAS a little upset here… the cowboys are due for a bounce back and are not as bad as their record suggests they are)

Packers @ Colts – Packers 

Chiefs @ Raiders – Chiefs (they’re just too good)

Rams @ Buccaneers – Buccaneers

Week 12

Moving forward, week 12 gives us BOTH Thanksgiving Football AND NO BYE WEEKS! A full slate for our feast. I will endeavour to be back with a Thanksgiving Special (three interesting games!) before Thursday, and then the regular column for next weekend. 

Anyway, thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts. As always, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter & Instagram. Enjoy week 11! Stay safe, stay healthy. 

Callum Squires is an English writer, former NCAA athlete and Miami Dolphins fan. 

Wade’s Week 10

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Like doing Charlie on a beach, the lines change as fast as the wind blows in week 10 of the NFL.
Having made my picks on our podcast for week 10, I have had to make some adjustments due to injuries, line-ups and weather for the games on Sunday.
Every good sports pundit should be watching the rosters and action prior to kickoff, even mediocre ones like me.
While I did take a bit of a beating in week 9, I’m still 24-4 on my upsets going into week 10.
Hopefully I can help you out here.

Week 10 is bringing some nasty weather with it. Predictions for middle America and the east coast point to strong winds and wet along the coast. Florida is also coming down from another late hurricane, which will make it moister than the front row of a Justin Bieber concert.

Here are some of my upsets for Week 10:

Texans (2-6) vs Browns (5-3)
Browns -4  +45.5

The line in this game has been changing all week thanks to the return of players on both sides.
Cleveland will have Nick Chubb and Wyatt Teller back, which will help them immensely to get the ball down the field. With OBJ out for the season. Mayfield is going to need to find some rhythm at home, which is predicated to be very windy and wet. Not too many long passes in this game, which is why the over/under went from 55 points to 45.5.
The Texans struggled against Luton and the Jags in week 9, and needed last minute heroics from DeShaun Watson to save the day. They will probably require that this weekend as well. Bradley Roby is due to return to the Texans D, which will help them out immensely.
The Bengals were able to toss the ball all over the Browns, so DW will also be looking to do that as well.
My initial prediction was that Cleveland should have no problems at home, and should easily cover. With the Texans getting healthier and the need for a crucial win, I like the Texans for an upset here.
I’m taking the under as well, as the weather looks very nasty.
Texans 21 Browns 18 

Broncos (3-5) vs Raiders (5-3)
Raiders -3.5  +50.5

Denver continues to thwart the paths of NFL teams in their wake, disrupting and demolishing teams that should beat them on paper. Despite numerous injuries, the horsey’s have been able to stay competitive, even though they have a losing record.
The Broncos are missing most of their defensive line, while the Raiders are missing most of their O-line. Fair trade? Denver should have some corner backs returning, which will allow them to pick off Carr when he does downfield with his wobblers.
While I picked Las Vegas initially to cover this game, I am turning more towards the antics of the Broncos to mess up their mojo in this game.
I like Denver to cover this one, and continue to cause waves in the league.
Raiders 26 Broncos 23

Washington (2-6) vs Lions (3-5)
Lions -4  +46

It really is a truly craptastic week of games on Sunday. There is a real ugly mess of matchups, and as someone who likes to wager, am looking to lay off on Week 10 given how many factors are up in the air.
Washington has played well for a bad team, their D has kept them in contests, while their quarterbacks spend most of their time breaking their own legs for fun. They have solid running backs, and Gibson should hopefully have a solid day against a Detroit D who is weak against RBs.
Detroit is as messy as the city itself, and with injuries to Flowers and Golladay, they will have to rely on the other guys to make the big plays. This could be too much for Marvin Jones and Hockenson, as the Washington team actually believe that they have a chance to win this division.
Washington Team is just playing too loose right now, and I like them to cover against a Lions team who continually disappoints at home.
Lions 27 Washington 25

Betting it

If you decide to parlay these picks, we suggest you try Bet365 which has some of the best NFL odds, as they offer bonuses for bigger parlays.
When you wager £10 on the 3 picks I made; Texans (-105) Washington (+110) Broncos (-110), you can get a return of £80.99, which is a tidy £70 profit.
Don’t bet what you don’t have, bet responsibly, don’t be an idiot.
Have fun, and good luck on Week 10!

 

Week 10 Podcast

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The dang Bills are on Sky again, & Ryan is seething mad about it in this weeks instalment of the podcast. For 5 Sundays this season, Sky sports have shown Buffalo game forcing Ryan to improvise, and once again he is foiled in week 10 as the Bills face the Cardinals.

Wade & Ryan look back at the week that was crap for 9, bitching at their wagers being screwed by crazy games. Phillip is up a River, Stafford got infected, and Cook continued to mess it up in the kitchen. Fantasies turned into nightmares, and the guys look to rebound in week 10.

America has birthed us more late games than early, making Monday morning a bit more of a climb.
Among the games the guys preview include:

Texans (2-6) vs Browns (5-3)
Browns -3  +54

Houston limped away with a win against the Jags, but they still have plenty of issues to address. Their D got torched by Luton, the worst possible jersey you would buy in the UK. Watson needs to spread the ball around if he wants a chance to win.
Cleveland is coming off a bye, which means that they will have some healthy guys back in play. Nick Chubb should be able to take over where he left off, making Hunt a threat in the slot. Chubb & Hunt together again.
Ryan & Wade both like the Browns here, who should be well rested.
Ryan- Browns 27 Texans 24
Wade- Browns 30 Texans 26

Bucs (6-3) vs Panthers (3-6)
Bucs -4.5  +50.5

Tampa Bay & TB12 got smoked by the Saints last week, which is never a good fuel for Tommy to make him mad. He was awful, so the Panthers need to replicate that rush if they want to stop his flow.
Carolina played with heart last week, thanks to C Mc coming back to score 2. Teddy was able to move the ball, but they still have issues with their secondary.
Ryan & Wade both like the Bucs to recover here, even if the Panthers are at home.
Ryan-Bucs 35 Panthers 23
Wade-Bucs 33 Panthers 23

Bills (7-2) vs Cardinals
Cardinals -2  +56

Buffalo beat the hide off the Seahawks last week until Russell Wilson was able to mount a late scoring push to not make it horrible. Can they replicate that gumption against the Cards?
Arizona took a tough beat last week against Miami, so they should be able to find some holes for Kyler to gash the Bills for some yards.
Ryan hates betting on his own team, but his superstition has powered him against the Bills, so he likes the Cardinals to win. Wade think the Bills will keep on stampeding, and upset the home team.
Ryan-Cardinals 30 Bills 27
Wade-Bills 27 Cardinals 26

Bengals (2-5-1) vs Steelers (8-0)
Steelers -8  + 47.5

Cincinnati has been a tough little team who can score. After a much needed bye, the Bengals are healthier and ready to rumble against an old foe.
Pissburgh is undefeated, but they are beatable. Dallas almost upset them last week when the Steelers seemed to  look past them. Big Ben might not be 100%, so he will need to be even puffier this week. Steroids should only be used in moderation.
Ryan sees the Bengals taking the upset here and handing the Steelers their first loss.
Wade agrees the Bengals will play with an inspired passion, but this Pittsburgh team has a tough D to shut down heavy fire.
Ryan- Bengals 28 Steelers 27
Wade- Steelers 27 Bengals 24

Have a listen to the podcast and make sure that you share it with all your friends. What’s better than the gift of free NFL entertainment?
We’re always looking for NFL writers and stories, so feel free to submit.
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Stay safe and sane. We’ll all be watching the games together again soon.

Wade’s Week 9 Upsets

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There have been a few big upsets this week (looking at you America), so why not continue that hot streak, with some top Week 9 tips?
While none of my NFL picks will be as controversial or tied up in lawsuits as long as the American election will, they will distract you from the shit show in the USA, and hopefully win you some cash.
Every week I take a look at some of the best value upsets in the NFL, which usually involves the NY Jets.
Below is a video so that you can watch it in all of its glory for yourselves.

Since releasing my upsets tips every week, I’ve hit a record of 20-2, and going 9-0 over the past 3 weeks of the NFL.
Looking at some of the games this week, I am sure my trend will continue.

Here are some of my top upsets for Week 9.

Broncos (3-4) vs Falcons (2-6)
Falcons -4  +50

Atlanta sucks, and they have pretty much signalled that they are ready to trade anyone on the team moving forward. Matt Ryan is a good QB, but if all you give him to play with are broken toys, then you’re not going to get a very happy camper.
Denver is playing by the seat of their pants with no real driver at the wheel. Drew Lock is not the answer, but they have made some moves to get some solid receivers in need of a QB.
Denver is the better team of the two, as the Falcons are one loss away from collapsing into a heap and crying on the floor.
I like Denver for the upset here.

Bears (5-3) vs Titans (5-2)
Titans -5.5  +46.5

The Titans took a beating at the hands of the lowly Bengals last weekend, which was a bit of surprise to many teams. The tandem of Tannehill & Henry was meant to instils fear and domination in the league, but as of late-not so much.
The Bears have had a bit of a flaccid dick year, looking hard and rough at times, and limp and moist at others. Nick Foles is expected to do big things, but that also requires his players to hold onto balls, which has been a problem this year.
The Titans aren’t 5.5 points better than the Bears thus far this season. The Bengals tossed the ball all over them, and the Bears can have similar success.
With recent injuries to their O line, the furious Chicago D should have no problem causing headaches for Tannehill.
I like Chicago to cover.

Dolphins (4-3) vs Cardinals (5-2)
Cardinals -4.5  +48

If you listened to our podcast, then you’ll know I am not a huge fan of Tua. He looked like a kid out of his element, and his size and lack of downfield vision hampered any progress he was going to make against the Rams last week. I’m not confident him in this week either, but I am a big fan of the Dolphins D.
Kyler Murray has had a great year thus far, finding Hopkins in huge, long plays, and using Christian Kirk at will. He will struggle against a Miami D that is starting to find its rhythm as of late.
Arizona has a tough game ahead against the Bills next week, so they might not be fully charged in a demolition of the Dolphins.
Miami has nothing to lose, and they continue to play that way.
Miami to cover.

Those are my upsets for Week 9, here’s the video of all my reasoning. Make sure you subscribe to our channels and share. We also have plenty of DraftKings contests to play in, just find our League NFL in London to join in all of the fun. Lockdown sucks, but at least we have football to get us through it. Good luck this week.

Sky Week 9

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Sky Sports has released its lineup of Week 9 games, so you can decide whether you’re watching it there, blacked out, or on Gamepass. We’re back on a 5 hour difference with the North American East Coast, which is a bit of a bummer once you taste a 4 hour difference.

TNF

Thursday Football is like an old high school girlfriend. She’s nice to think about, but once you commit to spending a whole night together, you wish you were sitting with your sweet gal Sunday.
Hardly anyone watches TNF even in America, instead opting for a CSI Utah marathon.
It’s a Friday at 1:20 am game, so why not watch it? It’s lockdown baby! Are you getting up in early to chug coffee before a Zoom meeting.
The Packers are smarting off a huge loss to Minnesota & the 49ers are dealign with a huge loss to their team, who all seemed to jump on the injury bandwagon.
Packers should pound San Fran in this one.

Sunday

Seahawks vs Bills 6pm

Finally, we don’t have to watch the Steelers again this week. Sky rode Pittsburgh for 3 weeks straight, pissing off loads of Keystone state fans who can’t afford Sky. The Bills escaped a lucky one last week against the Patriots, this one won’t be as forgiving though.

Dolphins vs Cardinals 9:25pm

Miami vs Arizona? Unless you’re talking about a Senior Citizen Battle Royale, you wouldn’t expect this to be much of a contest. Luckily, both these teams have some quick armed, fast moving QBs who know how to win. The Dolphins also have Tua, who does none of that.
This game might be interesting for a bit, but you can always catch highlights on Redzone.

Saints vs Bucs 1:20am 

Unless you were born in a cave, you might have noticed the weekly tally of Brees vs Brady with the most passing TDs. Please just STFU pundits, it’s annoying. We don’t need to see a ‘Breaking News’ banner across the screen every damn play. Let them finish the season, and then we can talk.
‘With a combined age of 83…’ is the kind of crap we’re going to hear all night.
Has no one heard of ‘ageism’? You just going to shame them every week based on how old they are?
Pretty sure if both guys were of colour, gay, coloured & gay, they would be less likely to hammer home the point each week.

MNF

Patriots vs Jets

Technically TMF (Tuesday Morning Football) as the hapless Pats take on the hopeless Jets. Who’s the real loser in this one? You, if you stay up to watch it. The Jets are not only tanking for Trevor, they’re taking one for the league, allowing themselves to be the butt, dick and stinky finger of every joke. Cam Newton should spend less time hat shopping, and more time reading defences.
A great game to watch the next morning over your first coffee dump.

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