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Callum’s Thanksgiving

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THE PICKS SIX THANKSGIVING SPECIAL

Well, Corona has REALLY officially ruined 2020. As I was writing this, we’ve been hit by breaking news in Baltimore. Ravens-Steelers is postponed to Sunday… and we’re down to just TWO Thanksgiving football games. Sad. Obviously… there are much more important things. It’s absolutely the correct decision to keep everyone safe, but it is sad we’re losing a third of our Thanksgiving slate. 

As far as we’re concerned here at Picks Six, Sunday was a bit of a down day. An 8-5 record on the games was a bit disappointing – a couple of rogue upsets were thrown in there. I’ll update my season stats for this weekend’s column after these two games on Thursday. 

Anyway, on with the matter at hand. This is the first Thanksgiving I’ll have spent in the UK since 2012… I’m very sad about it, but determined to make the most of the day and make sure I do the 3 most important things on any Thanksgiving – Give many thanks, seriously over eat, and watch 9 hours of uninterrupted NFL football… guess it’s only gonna be about 6 hours this year. 

One of the bonuses of Thanksgiving football is that each game can receive your undivided attention. I usually live in the world of RedZone, and as a result miss out on some of the nuances of the “not so often on prime time” teams. So – a little bit different from the norm – let’s take a more in depth than usual look at both games on Thursday.

Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions

The Texans are still probably too far back realistically to get back into the AFC Playoff race, but beating the Patriots will always feel good. Surely Houston will be riding high following Sunday’s exploits? The Lions on the other hand… yikes. Matthew Stafford was shutout for the first time in his career, and not by one of the most elite defenses in the league. Happily, I donthink Detroit will shake off their atrocious offensive output vs Carolina on Sunday and help this one be a fun game. Both teams are better offensively than defensively, but the X-Factor in this matchup had to be Deshaun Watson. I correctly called a “Watson” game on Sunday as he pushed the Patriots deeper into the mire. Duke Johnson was held in check, but Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller are such a threat down the field that Houston can still be expected to score lots of points even without a typical run game. This game just feels like a classic Detroit Thanksgiving game where they’re just simply outmatched and not good enough to win. The return of Swift to their back field will help, but I don’t think their pass rush is good enough to stress Watson throughout the game. Houston should win this comfortably enough.

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys

Welcome back into playoff contention Dallas Cowboys. The big upset against Minnesota has breathed life into a season that looked a lost cause just a few weeks ago. On the other side of the coin… I am completely befuddled by the fact that Washington found a way to win 3 games this year – they might not win any more – but you have to credit Ron Rivera for instilling some drive and grit in this team. I think their defensive stats are a little skewed – Washington claims to have a top 5 pass defense, but the truth is teams have been up on them in almost every game and stuck with the run as a result – but Chase Young is already proving to be the game-wrecker he was advertised to be. The Cowboys hopes fall largely on being able to contain the Washington pass rush and give Andy Dalton time to find his weapons. Those weapons WILL find a way to be open, but that pocket needs to hold long enough for a play to develop. Yes, they should lean on Zeke, but when a pass is needed Dalton must be protected. Their defense appeared to take a big step forward against the Vikings and, with all due respect to Washington, Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are nowhere near Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. I’m taking the Cowboys every which way here and actually think they have enough left in the tank to get to 6-10, and win the NFC East. 

Picks

Okay, so, it’s a holiday… we deserve entertainment… we’re definitely backing both overs. Fill up with Turkey, then fill up with points. I’m a little biased with my past history of having lived in Texas, but it’s really hard not to see a double for the Lonestar State come Thursday. Texans and Cowboys both to win.

Thanksgiving Thursday Picks:

The Double Over –

Over 51.5 (Houston @ Detroit)

Over 46.0 (Washington @ Dallas)

The Texas Double Spread –

Houston Texans -3.0 

Dallas Cowboys -3.0

The Quad Touchdown Special –

Both Players to score a TD – TJ Hockenson & Brandin Cooks

Both Players to score a TD – Ezekiel Elliot & Antonio Gibson

£10 on this pays £165 depending on your bookmaker.

(Bonus Special Tip) – 

If you’re in the U.K., SkyBet are offering this at 16/1 which I LOVE with a capital L.O.V.E.

Brandin Cooks 100+ rec yds & Ezekiel Elliot 100+ rush yds.

Week 12 Sunday 

Obviously, thanks to the postponement, we now get Steelers-Ravens on Sunday, which adds itself to a pretty tasty slate already! Titans-Colts, Chiefs-Buccaneers & Packers-Bears (always guaranteed drama) as a Sunday nightcap is a very tasty way to spend an afternoon and evening. As always, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter and Instagram. Come say hi, and have a very happy Thanksgiving wherever you are. 

Callum Squires is a UK based writer and friend of NFL in London. 

Week 11 Upsets

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Week 11 is here, so let’s see if we can find out where Las Vegas may have missed a few steps. That’s right, it’s time for Wade’s Week 11 upsets.
Despite a stinky beating last week, I am rocking a 23-5 upsets record, which I am hoping to improve upon this week.
It was a wild week of wind in week 10, which affected some of my scores, but not as much as injuries did.
So what lines might you want to look at this week? Well, here ya go!

Falcons (3-6) vs Saints (7-2)
Saints -3.5  +51

Drew Brees is a broken man, although it wasn’t known how broken he was until this weekend. With 11 fractures, Brees is going to be sidelined for most of the rest of the regular season. That means Taysom Hill is taking over, leaving poor Jameis Winston perplexed.
Maybe they will finally have a QB that can throw for more than 12 yards?
Atlanta finally has her groove back, with Matt Ryan chucking loads of yards and Calvin Ridley continuing to frustrate the opposition.
It seems a little disrespectful to look over the Falcons given their recent play, and the fact that they have loads of players back from injury.
This line has dropped from -5 to -3.5, and may continue to drop.
I like the Falcons here to cover, and if Matty Ice is grooving, they could potentially even win.
Falcons Cover

Lions (4-5) vs Panthers (3-7)
Panthers -3  +49

This game is like driving down the highway, and your two kids are fighting nonstop in the back. You’re not sure if you want to pull the car over and smack them both, or just aim the engine at the semi coming down the road and pray for sweet release of all of you.
Detroit is more than injured, they are also lacking in direction and focus. How much more can you expect to shoulder on Matt Stafford before his wife has a Twitter meltdown?
Carolina is favoured by 3 despite losing Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffery. Really? Is Robbie Anderson going to do all the work himself then?
The Panthers pass rush sucks, which means broken Stafford will have plenty of time to hit Jones or Hockenson.
Lions Win

Bengals (2-6-1) vs Washington (2-7)
Washington -1.5  +46.5

Joe Burrow can’t seem to catch a break this year. He has played incredibly despite a horrible O-line keeping the Bengals in games, they had no right to be close in.
Washington can’t get a leg up, literally. Their QBs suck, and their only salvation has been their defence, which keeps them in games.
Cincinnati has played loads of tough teams, so it’s fitting that they finally get a game against a weak opposition. While Joe Mixon is out, Bernard will be fine to distract away from all the balls tossed to Higgins and Boyd.
I like the Bengals to win this one in the nations capital.
Bengals Win

Packers (7-2) vs Colts (6-3)
Colts -1.5  +51.5

Green Bay as underdogs? Are you trying to piss off and motivate Rodgers?
Sure, the Colts have improved their play thanks to getting players back from injuries, but they haven’t demonstrated being favourites over the Packers.
Indy’s D and O line have both been playing incredible football lately, but Phillip Rivers hasn’t been that convincing. They will need to use more than Nyheim Hines to get the running game going, as that seems like the only way you’re going to hurt Green Bay.
I like Aaron to light up this dome, and hurt the Colts at home.
Packers Win

So how much will you win this week if you parlay my 4 picks into one handy bet?
Well on Bet365 a £10 bet gives you a return of £158.26, including a 15% bonus for multiple bets.

Make sure you also join our DraftKings League. Our league ‘NFL in London’ is a great place to try your hand at fantasy NFL. You can play for FREE or in some of our smaller contests as well. Once you build your confidence up, try your hand at some of the great contests in the DK lobby.
Join here:
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Stay safe, sane, and enjoy week 11!

Week 11 DraftKings

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If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that fantasy is way more satisfying than reality. The whole year has felt like trying to unstick your unit from a rusty zipper, while baby new year watches in the corner ready to yell ‘we got a bleeder!’
Or maybe I just had a rough week 10 in fantasy.

Tom Brady was on fire in week 10, which was surprising for old man TB12. Dalvin Cook also played on Monday night, which could explain the lack of 40 points on your DK sheet.
Who will be the beasts of week 11? Here are some of the top players I am looking at for my DraftKings line-up.

QBs

Justin Herbert $6800

Who’s playing the Jets this week? Well it’s none other than rocking rookie Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Granted NYJ has made themselves less ‘sucky’ in recent weeks, but they are still the worst team in the league. Their D has made some strides, and could give Herbert some pressure in this game, but not enough to win. Herbert should have plenty of time to hook up with Keenan Allen in this one if you are looking for a tasty stack.

Taysom Hill $4800

WTF did Jameis do to get benched in this contest? Word on the dirty streets is that he had a run in with Sean Payton, and it wasn’t pretty. Speaking of pretty, stud-hunk Taysom Hill will see if he’s more than just a ‘sneak it up your bottom’ type of QB, or if he actually has some depth. Luckily Hill is playing the Falcons, who have gushed points in every contest. Will Hill prove his value, or be shown to be a bit of a starter fraud? Either way, he’s cheap at $4800.

RBs

Dalvin Cook $9000

Hey big spender, watcha got cooking? Dalvin Cook has been incredible since returning from injury, and should be able to continue gashing yards against a helpless Cowboys team. Dallas kept it tight against the Steelers a few weeks ago, but Cook is a different animal. His explosive speed and great RB vision should pay off in a few TDs.

Salvon Ahmed $4800

Who? This Miami rookie gets his first start on Sunday thanks to injuries to the Dolphins running game. Despite playing in his first year, Ahmed has shown signs of promise and should factor in the Dolphins relentless attack against an injured Broncos squad. Tua will also look to Ahmed in slot options, and a great steal at $4800.

WRs

Keenan Allen $7400

His DK price continues to rise each week, as he continues to demonstrate dominant plays. Allen and Herbert have really found a solid rhythm, and you can imagine Allen is going to feast all over the poor Jets with plenty of time and space all day. Sure, he’s pricey, but paired with Herbert he is definitely worth it.

Jakobi Meyers $4900

Meyers is quickly becoming the go to favourite for Cam Newton in this mess of a Patriots squad. After a solid win against the Ravens last week, the Pats will be looking to continue their winning ways against a weak Texans defence. He’s incredibly cheap at $4900 and should be able to get you 15 fantasy points on Sunday.

TEs

Eric Ebron $4000

One of the many shining lights in a sea of Steelers, Ebron is one of the few guys Big Ben can hit within a 10 yard radius. Jacksonville has a fast from which gave Rodgers trouble last week, but Tonyan was able to find some gaps in the armour. Ebron will have plenty of time, as the Jags will be focused on the slew of Pittsburgh receivers who will also be open.

DEF

Saints $3200

After coming back from a bye, the Saints have been on fine form-unless of course you count losing Drew Brees for 3 more weeks. Their D played with fire last week, and you can expect that to continue against a division rival. New Orleans will look to get to Matt Ryan often, breaking down his resolve and taking the pressure of Taysom Hill, who will need all the help he can get.

NFL in London League

That’s it for this week’s picks, if you want to join us and play along, why not join our DraftKings League? It’s FREE to join, and we have a mixture of FREE and PAID contests. Who knows you could be one of the guys winning every week.
Join here:
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Stay safe, stay sane, and hopefully we can all be back watching the NFL together soon.

Wade’s Week 10

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Like doing Charlie on a beach, the lines change as fast as the wind blows in week 10 of the NFL.
Having made my picks on our podcast for week 10, I have had to make some adjustments due to injuries, line-ups and weather for the games on Sunday.
Every good sports pundit should be watching the rosters and action prior to kickoff, even mediocre ones like me.
While I did take a bit of a beating in week 9, I’m still 24-4 on my upsets going into week 10.
Hopefully I can help you out here.

Week 10 is bringing some nasty weather with it. Predictions for middle America and the east coast point to strong winds and wet along the coast. Florida is also coming down from another late hurricane, which will make it moister than the front row of a Justin Bieber concert.

Here are some of my upsets for Week 10:

Texans (2-6) vs Browns (5-3)
Browns -4  +45.5

The line in this game has been changing all week thanks to the return of players on both sides.
Cleveland will have Nick Chubb and Wyatt Teller back, which will help them immensely to get the ball down the field. With OBJ out for the season. Mayfield is going to need to find some rhythm at home, which is predicated to be very windy and wet. Not too many long passes in this game, which is why the over/under went from 55 points to 45.5.
The Texans struggled against Luton and the Jags in week 9, and needed last minute heroics from DeShaun Watson to save the day. They will probably require that this weekend as well. Bradley Roby is due to return to the Texans D, which will help them out immensely.
The Bengals were able to toss the ball all over the Browns, so DW will also be looking to do that as well.
My initial prediction was that Cleveland should have no problems at home, and should easily cover. With the Texans getting healthier and the need for a crucial win, I like the Texans for an upset here.
I’m taking the under as well, as the weather looks very nasty.
Texans 21 Browns 18 

Broncos (3-5) vs Raiders (5-3)
Raiders -3.5  +50.5

Denver continues to thwart the paths of NFL teams in their wake, disrupting and demolishing teams that should beat them on paper. Despite numerous injuries, the horsey’s have been able to stay competitive, even though they have a losing record.
The Broncos are missing most of their defensive line, while the Raiders are missing most of their O-line. Fair trade? Denver should have some corner backs returning, which will allow them to pick off Carr when he does downfield with his wobblers.
While I picked Las Vegas initially to cover this game, I am turning more towards the antics of the Broncos to mess up their mojo in this game.
I like Denver to cover this one, and continue to cause waves in the league.
Raiders 26 Broncos 23

Washington (2-6) vs Lions (3-5)
Lions -4  +46

It really is a truly craptastic week of games on Sunday. There is a real ugly mess of matchups, and as someone who likes to wager, am looking to lay off on Week 10 given how many factors are up in the air.
Washington has played well for a bad team, their D has kept them in contests, while their quarterbacks spend most of their time breaking their own legs for fun. They have solid running backs, and Gibson should hopefully have a solid day against a Detroit D who is weak against RBs.
Detroit is as messy as the city itself, and with injuries to Flowers and Golladay, they will have to rely on the other guys to make the big plays. This could be too much for Marvin Jones and Hockenson, as the Washington team actually believe that they have a chance to win this division.
Washington Team is just playing too loose right now, and I like them to cover against a Lions team who continually disappoints at home.
Lions 27 Washington 25

Betting it

If you decide to parlay these picks, we suggest you try Bet365 which has some of the best NFL odds, as they offer bonuses for bigger parlays.
When you wager £10 on the 3 picks I made; Texans (-105) Washington (+110) Broncos (-110), you can get a return of £80.99, which is a tidy £70 profit.
Don’t bet what you don’t have, bet responsibly, don’t be an idiot.
Have fun, and good luck on Week 10!

 

Week 10 DraftKings

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It’s time to get your fantasy on, as we look at some of the top players to target in week 10 of the NFL.
Dalvin Cook will not be playing in the first section of games, so you’ll need to find someone else to snag you 40 points on Sunday.
Week 9 was a bit of a punch in the nads, so hopefully we can help you make some money for this week.
Make sure you join our DraftKings League so that you can play along as well.
Here are some of the top picks to look at this week.

QBs

Josh Allen $7500

Allen was a beast last week against the Seahawks, throwing for 4 TDs and taking a commanding lead in the AFC East. The Bills face the Cardinals this week, who have shown that they have plenty of gaps to allow them to be scored on. This should be a big back and forth battle, with Allen finding plenty of options in a weak Arizona secondary.

Jake Luton $5400

Pronounced ‘Loo-tawn’, Jake has possibly the worst jersey you could ever wear in England. For those of you who don’t know, Luton is a dumpy airport north of London and a mediocre city on the commuter belt. It’s like the Flint, Michigan to London’s Detroit.
Luton is the new moustache in town, and looked better than Tua in week 9. If he can connect with some of his talented receivers, he could find some holes in Packers D, which they often give up. Good value if you want to save up for other players.

RBs

Leonard Fournette $5500

The Bucs are coming down from a beating so bad, they still have dried blood in their ears. Brady was brutal, so they will need to get the running game together this week against the Panthers if they hope to establish a lead. Fournette should have a good game against a Carolina D who have been leaking points all season.

James Robinson $6600

One of the few bright lights for the Jags, Robinson has established himself as a marquee running back in a league where that title has faded as of late. As the top dog of their offence, Robinson will be used often against a Packers team who have been victim to big running plays. There’s a good chance he hits 100 yards against Green Bay on Sunday.

WRs

Tee Higgins $4600

With a name that sounds like something a stoner might say, Tee Higgins is quickly becoming a fave of Joe Burrow. With so much talent on the Bengals receiving squad, Higgins often finds himself open and is great for yards after the catch. Yes, he’s playing the Steelers on Sunday, but they will only be able to carry so much.

Danny Amendola $3900

Danny come lately has been slowly working his way up in the Lions squad. This Pats veteran has been solid for Matt Stafford, considering Kenny Golladay is out once again. Detroit can score, and often, which will give the Washington football team problems. He’s great value under $4000, and should factor in some Redzone plays.

Jalen Reagor $4200

The NFC East is slutting it up again this week, passing whatever they have to each other and disgusting the rest of the NFL. It really is a horrible division. The Eagles are back with more injuries, although they should have Miles Sanders back this week to take some pressure off of Wentz. Reagor is adept at hauling in deep balls chucked with abandon by Carson, as well as beasting it in the redzone.

TEs

TJ Hockenson $5200

The Hock has been ok this season, although you would expect more out of him given the state of the Lions. He’s still growing, but should have no problem against a Washington secondary that struggles to cover. A little pricey for a TE, but worth it if you need some solid points.

Darren Waller $5900

Possibly the best and most consistent TE this season, Waller is big play player who is taught to cover. Big, strong and fast, he is vastly becoming Carr’s go-to target this year. The most expensive TE this week, but hey, you deserve it.

DEF

New Orleans $3000

Did you see what the Saints did to TB12 and the Bucs last week? Imagine if they could do that every week? The Saints are facing a depleted 49ers team led by Nick Mullens. With injuries across every part of their team, San Francisco is looking to limp out of this season and into a dark cave. The Saints should help chase them to that cave on Sunday.

NFL in London

We have our own NFL in London League on DraftKings. It’s FREE to join and fun to play. We have paid and free games every Sunday, so make sure that you sign up and play along.
We will be hosting DraftKings parties once this whole meeting people in public thing is fixed.
Sign up here!
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