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Callum’s Thanksgiving

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THE PICKS SIX THANKSGIVING SPECIAL

Well, Corona has REALLY officially ruined 2020. As I was writing this, we’ve been hit by breaking news in Baltimore. Ravens-Steelers is postponed to Sunday… and we’re down to just TWO Thanksgiving football games. Sad. Obviously… there are much more important things. It’s absolutely the correct decision to keep everyone safe, but it is sad we’re losing a third of our Thanksgiving slate. 

As far as we’re concerned here at Picks Six, Sunday was a bit of a down day. An 8-5 record on the games was a bit disappointing – a couple of rogue upsets were thrown in there. I’ll update my season stats for this weekend’s column after these two games on Thursday. 

Anyway, on with the matter at hand. This is the first Thanksgiving I’ll have spent in the UK since 2012… I’m very sad about it, but determined to make the most of the day and make sure I do the 3 most important things on any Thanksgiving – Give many thanks, seriously over eat, and watch 9 hours of uninterrupted NFL football… guess it’s only gonna be about 6 hours this year. 

One of the bonuses of Thanksgiving football is that each game can receive your undivided attention. I usually live in the world of RedZone, and as a result miss out on some of the nuances of the “not so often on prime time” teams. So – a little bit different from the norm – let’s take a more in depth than usual look at both games on Thursday.

Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions

The Texans are still probably too far back realistically to get back into the AFC Playoff race, but beating the Patriots will always feel good. Surely Houston will be riding high following Sunday’s exploits? The Lions on the other hand… yikes. Matthew Stafford was shutout for the first time in his career, and not by one of the most elite defenses in the league. Happily, I donthink Detroit will shake off their atrocious offensive output vs Carolina on Sunday and help this one be a fun game. Both teams are better offensively than defensively, but the X-Factor in this matchup had to be Deshaun Watson. I correctly called a “Watson” game on Sunday as he pushed the Patriots deeper into the mire. Duke Johnson was held in check, but Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller are such a threat down the field that Houston can still be expected to score lots of points even without a typical run game. This game just feels like a classic Detroit Thanksgiving game where they’re just simply outmatched and not good enough to win. The return of Swift to their back field will help, but I don’t think their pass rush is good enough to stress Watson throughout the game. Houston should win this comfortably enough.

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys

Welcome back into playoff contention Dallas Cowboys. The big upset against Minnesota has breathed life into a season that looked a lost cause just a few weeks ago. On the other side of the coin… I am completely befuddled by the fact that Washington found a way to win 3 games this year – they might not win any more – but you have to credit Ron Rivera for instilling some drive and grit in this team. I think their defensive stats are a little skewed – Washington claims to have a top 5 pass defense, but the truth is teams have been up on them in almost every game and stuck with the run as a result – but Chase Young is already proving to be the game-wrecker he was advertised to be. The Cowboys hopes fall largely on being able to contain the Washington pass rush and give Andy Dalton time to find his weapons. Those weapons WILL find a way to be open, but that pocket needs to hold long enough for a play to develop. Yes, they should lean on Zeke, but when a pass is needed Dalton must be protected. Their defense appeared to take a big step forward against the Vikings and, with all due respect to Washington, Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson are nowhere near Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. I’m taking the Cowboys every which way here and actually think they have enough left in the tank to get to 6-10, and win the NFC East. 

Picks

Okay, so, it’s a holiday… we deserve entertainment… we’re definitely backing both overs. Fill up with Turkey, then fill up with points. I’m a little biased with my past history of having lived in Texas, but it’s really hard not to see a double for the Lonestar State come Thursday. Texans and Cowboys both to win.

Thanksgiving Thursday Picks:

The Double Over –

Over 51.5 (Houston @ Detroit)

Over 46.0 (Washington @ Dallas)

The Texas Double Spread –

Houston Texans -3.0 

Dallas Cowboys -3.0

The Quad Touchdown Special –

Both Players to score a TD – TJ Hockenson & Brandin Cooks

Both Players to score a TD – Ezekiel Elliot & Antonio Gibson

£10 on this pays £165 depending on your bookmaker.

(Bonus Special Tip) – 

If you’re in the U.K., SkyBet are offering this at 16/1 which I LOVE with a capital L.O.V.E.

Brandin Cooks 100+ rec yds & Ezekiel Elliot 100+ rush yds.

Week 12 Sunday 

Obviously, thanks to the postponement, we now get Steelers-Ravens on Sunday, which adds itself to a pretty tasty slate already! Titans-Colts, Chiefs-Buccaneers & Packers-Bears (always guaranteed drama) as a Sunday nightcap is a very tasty way to spend an afternoon and evening. As always, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter and Instagram. Come say hi, and have a very happy Thanksgiving wherever you are. 

Callum Squires is a UK based writer and friend of NFL in London. 

Thanksgiving Podcast

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Gobble, gobble NFL fans, it’s time for the annual Thanksgiving podcast and we couldn’t be more excited.
Actually we could, but let’s not get into all that yet, as we know that everyone has had a pretty sucky 2020 thus far And if you haven’t, you must be a Steelers fan.
Wade & Ryan break down the terrible games we had in week 11, taking the time to reflect on all the players who screwed them on their bets.
They also preview the 3 games lined up for Thursday, although if you live in the UK the only REALLY good game takes place at 1:20 am Friday morning when the Steelers host the Ravens.
But we’ll get into all that.

Texans (3-7) vs Lions (4-6)
Texans -3  +51.5
5:30pm GMT

Once again the Motor City is hosting a Thanksgiving classic, although the guys think that the honour of hosting these games should switch if the team loses it in a contest. Wouldn’t it be more fun if your team earned a right to host Thanksgiving by winning it the year prior?
Houston is starting to get their groove together, and it only took 7 losses to do it. Their team is somewhat healthier, and the ghost of Bill O’Brien seems to have farted its way out the door.
Deshaun Watson looked better in his beating of the Patriots, but he is still taking way too much time in the pocket before making a decision. He needs to speed up his gameplay and hit targets earlier like big man Fuller if he wants a chance of getting an early lead here.
Detroit as a team is a reflection of the city itself. A paler, sicklier version of itself, beset by financial problems and a dwindling metropolis. They don’t work as hard as they use to, and as franchises go, could be one of the ones that moves first in the next decade.
Matt Stafford has club thumb, and the team is too riddled with ill to even make it through the rest of the season with their heads held high.
They will need their D huge in this game, as Watson looks to rampage across them with the help of Duke Johnson.
Ryan and Wade both like the Texans in a comfortable win here.
Ryan- Texans 27 Lions 12
Wade- Texans 30 Lions 21

Washington (3-7) vs Cowboys (3-7)
Cowboys -3  +46
9:30pm GMT

Dallas is also hosting another turkey bowl, although this year the title seems apt given the state of both of the teams playing in this game.
The Cowboys are bleeding money from the lack of fans, but it might have been a blessing given the injuries that they have suffered this season. Watching Dak get twisted would be enough to make any child fearful for years, not to mention what the Washington has suffered to their legs as well.
The Team has been staying in the hunt for the smelly NFC East title like a rat riding a giant turd down the sewer. Alex Smith brings a wince of anticipation every time he hobbles onto the pitch, as you wonder how long it is before he gets collapsed like a Buffalo tailgate table.
Their D keeps them in games, and if speedy McLaurin can find space, then the Team can stay in this and keep it close like most of their games this season.
Ginger Ninja Dalton is back, and it seems like his team respects him enough to stand up for him the next time someone decided to decapitate him midfield. The Cowboys have the most talented & healthy squad in this division, they just need to get the mojo rolling and this could be the game to kickstart it.
Ryan & Wade both like ‘Dem Boys in this game, although Wade thinks that they might open this game up if they get the lead and force Washington to pass more.
Ryan- Cowboys 24 Washington 20
Wade- Cowboys 28 Washington 20

Ravens (6-4) vs Steelers (10-0)
Steelers -4.5  +45
1:30am GMT Friday

The good thing about lockdown is not having to go to a sportsbar & hear the smarmy gip of a Steelers fan talking about a perfect season. We get it, you’re good, healthy, but you also have a lucky schedule. And Big Ben, who is known to turd it in big situations.
The Steelers host the limping Ravens in this late contest that is on at an enviable time here in the UK. Sadly most of us will have to watch this with our morning coffee, but it still looks to be a great game.
Baltimore is suffering after that beating at the hands of the Titans last week, and now they have to cower into the home of your biggest rival on the biggest stage of America.
Lamar Jackson isn’t the same without an impeccable offensive line. Guys are getting to him and rattling his confidence, leading to poor decision making. Not having a reliable running back also adds to the ills of this team that is looking to reclaim 2019 glory.
The Ravens are lacking on defense as well, with key injuries to some of their top players meaning Big Ben will have plenty of time to find one of his many receivers.
Pittsburgh just needs to hand the ball off to Conner and watch the points come in, with Ben throwing a few easy TDs given to him by his D.
Ryan likes the Ravens to comeback and slug the Steelers with their first loss of the season, Wade likes the idea, but still sees Pittsburgh rolling on to victory here.
Ryan- Ravens 27 Steelers 26
Wade- Steelers 24 Ravens 18

That’s it for this week so far on our Thanksgiving Podcast, we will be back with another podcast this week to preview Week 12 games, as well as review the turkey picks from Thursday.
Thanks for listening, please subscribe, share, laugh, love, and for God’s sake..sanitise.

Baby Murray

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Baby Yoda might be the hottest, cutest Christmas toy, but have you heard of Baby Murray?
This decorative, darling figure is the perfect gift for the NFL fan in your household.

Standing just under 6 feet tall, this beaming figure is sure to be the envy of your friends this holiday season.
Just put a ball in front of him, say ‘hike’, and watch Baby Murray do his thing.

Baby Murray is programmed for hours of fun! Tap on his head, and he will perform a series of spin moves to juke his way out of any defence. Double tap and watch his little arm fire a rocket of a pass downfield. And for pure joy, triple tap his helmet and he’ll perfectly execute a Hail-Murray pass, a heave-ho chuck to the end zone where (hopefully) Hopkins will be waiting arms outstretched to make the score.

Order now, and we’ll through in some Groaning Bills Fans, who will made audible screams as the game falls apart in one play.

Baby Murray is a limited time offer, so make sure you get yours exclusively from NFL in London, just one payment of £999.00.

(figure may just be a Cameo message of Kyler Murray laughing at you for believing this was real)

Week 11 Upsets

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Week 11 is here, so let’s see if we can find out where Las Vegas may have missed a few steps. That’s right, it’s time for Wade’s Week 11 upsets.
Despite a stinky beating last week, I am rocking a 23-5 upsets record, which I am hoping to improve upon this week.
It was a wild week of wind in week 10, which affected some of my scores, but not as much as injuries did.
So what lines might you want to look at this week? Well, here ya go!

Falcons (3-6) vs Saints (7-2)
Saints -3.5  +51

Drew Brees is a broken man, although it wasn’t known how broken he was until this weekend. With 11 fractures, Brees is going to be sidelined for most of the rest of the regular season. That means Taysom Hill is taking over, leaving poor Jameis Winston perplexed.
Maybe they will finally have a QB that can throw for more than 12 yards?
Atlanta finally has her groove back, with Matt Ryan chucking loads of yards and Calvin Ridley continuing to frustrate the opposition.
It seems a little disrespectful to look over the Falcons given their recent play, and the fact that they have loads of players back from injury.
This line has dropped from -5 to -3.5, and may continue to drop.
I like the Falcons here to cover, and if Matty Ice is grooving, they could potentially even win.
Falcons Cover

Lions (4-5) vs Panthers (3-7)
Panthers -3  +49

This game is like driving down the highway, and your two kids are fighting nonstop in the back. You’re not sure if you want to pull the car over and smack them both, or just aim the engine at the semi coming down the road and pray for sweet release of all of you.
Detroit is more than injured, they are also lacking in direction and focus. How much more can you expect to shoulder on Matt Stafford before his wife has a Twitter meltdown?
Carolina is favoured by 3 despite losing Teddy Bridgewater and Christian McCaffery. Really? Is Robbie Anderson going to do all the work himself then?
The Panthers pass rush sucks, which means broken Stafford will have plenty of time to hit Jones or Hockenson.
Lions Win

Bengals (2-6-1) vs Washington (2-7)
Washington -1.5  +46.5

Joe Burrow can’t seem to catch a break this year. He has played incredibly despite a horrible O-line keeping the Bengals in games, they had no right to be close in.
Washington can’t get a leg up, literally. Their QBs suck, and their only salvation has been their defence, which keeps them in games.
Cincinnati has played loads of tough teams, so it’s fitting that they finally get a game against a weak opposition. While Joe Mixon is out, Bernard will be fine to distract away from all the balls tossed to Higgins and Boyd.
I like the Bengals to win this one in the nations capital.
Bengals Win

Packers (7-2) vs Colts (6-3)
Colts -1.5  +51.5

Green Bay as underdogs? Are you trying to piss off and motivate Rodgers?
Sure, the Colts have improved their play thanks to getting players back from injuries, but they haven’t demonstrated being favourites over the Packers.
Indy’s D and O line have both been playing incredible football lately, but Phillip Rivers hasn’t been that convincing. They will need to use more than Nyheim Hines to get the running game going, as that seems like the only way you’re going to hurt Green Bay.
I like Aaron to light up this dome, and hurt the Colts at home.
Packers Win

So how much will you win this week if you parlay my 4 picks into one handy bet?
Well on Bet365 a £10 bet gives you a return of £158.26, including a 15% bonus for multiple bets.

Make sure you also join our DraftKings League. Our league ‘NFL in London’ is a great place to try your hand at fantasy NFL. You can play for FREE or in some of our smaller contests as well. Once you build your confidence up, try your hand at some of the great contests in the DK lobby.
Join here:
https://dkn.gs/r/kwxDR0JIokKPkA6cPjCtNA

Stay safe, sane, and enjoy week 11!

Callum’s Week 11

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Hello! Welcome back to another edition of the Picks Six. Last week, we had some good (both Overs), some bad (Nick Chubb running out at the 1yd line…), and an 11-2 record in the Full English section! Pretty good. This week, there are genuinely the most games for a while where I’m scratching my head saying “I really don’t know which way I think this will go.” This is a dangerous position to be in, because I could either be perfect or awful due to these toss ups. I’m concerned, but excited. Let’s go. 6 sections, lots of picks and tips, have fun and enjoy. 

The 1st & Goal from the 1yd Line. (Season Record: 6-2) 

The Packers tried their best to make us sweat a little on this one last weekend, but managed to repel the surprisingly stubborn Jake Luton and the surprisingly stout Jacksonville defense in the end. We’re on a bit of a roll here in this section – so let’s keep it going!

After a brief one week break… We’re back to picking against the Jets gang!! It’s too easy – but how can you go against it? Justin Herbert has been great in his rookie season, and the Jets have been nothing short of abysmal almost from start to finish. The Chargers aren’t the most normal or reliable of teams – every game with them involved seems to have some weird quirk or another – but they’re more than talented enough to beat New York here. LA Chargers to win.

The 45yd Field Goal (Season Record 1-7)

CURSE YOU, NICK CHUBB. Running out at the ONE YARD LINE? This failure to cover Browns -3.5 ruined many people’s Sundays – not just mine – and also ruined my 2-0 bid in this category last weekend. Fortunately, Alvin Kamara was on hand to FINALLY drag us to a win!! The Saints -10.0 would not be denied, even with a somewhat concerning injury to Drew Brees. 

Anyway – finally – we’re on the board. This week, there are quite a few tight games across the board. I like TWO very slight underdogs. They are listed below:

Packers to win (@Colts)

I’m really unsure why the Colts are favoured here. Yep, they’re riding high off a nice win against the Titans, but their offense hasn’t really been electric this season. They’re relying on their defense to hold the opposition close and allow Rivers and his RBs (mainly) to slowly chip their way down the field. This week, Aaron Rodgers (who WILL have Davante Adams active) comes to town to try and tear down their castle walls. For me, that Packers offense is good enough to breach the Colts’ D. It is a toss up, but I’m leaning Cheese-Head. Packers to win.

Bengals to win (@Washington)

Joe Burrow is a big time player. He’s had an up and down first season in terms of results, but has shown more than enough to get the Cincinnati faithful excited about their future with Joey B as the face of the franchise. Conversely, Washington still seem to be struggling to find their identity. Yes, it’s great to see Alex Smith back starting games. I’m delighted he’s back healthy. However, it does also show that the Football Team are on their third starting QB of the season, and haven’t yet found the stability they would have hoped under first year head coach Ron Rivera. I’m riding the Bengals this weekend, largely because I trust Cincy’s QB, and don’t trust most of Washington’s team at all. Bengals to win.

The Hail Mary Touchdown Treble
(Season Record 0-2, Individual TD Picks 1-6)

This is my longshot from half field. Unlikely, but you never know. A Touchdown scorers Treble.

AB, Ruggs & Andrews all failed to find the endzone last week – frustrating and annoying! This week, we’re riding some Tight Ends to success…

Jonnu Smith (Titans, @ Ravens) – The Ravens HAVE to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. This opens up play action. Smith is very athletic and a great red zone target. I see it. 

Austin Hooper (Browns, vs Eagles) – This is the riskiest leg here, based on the weather and Cleveland leaning on the run, but Baker sure loves a TE target in the end zone. We saw Harrison Bryant catch two from Mayfield a few weeks ago, and Hooper is an elite receiver when given targets. Let’s ride it.

Taysom Hill (Saints, vs Falcons) – The Joker of week 11. You think Sean Payton is going to start his mobile QB and not have a couple QB runs scripted in the game plan for the red zone? No chance. Gimme Taysom to score (and probably throw for another couple too!).

£5 on this treble pays £140 depending on your bookmaker.

The Overs (Season Record: 5-4-1)

2-0!! We went 2-0!! The “Hail Murray” may have stolen the headlines, but Bills vs Cardinals was always guaranteed points, and TB12 on a bounce back against the Panthers didn’t let us down either. It’s nice when both the tips win!! This week…

Over 50.0 (Falcons @ Saints) – THIS is maybe the most intriguing game of the week. I was BUZZING to see Jameis Winston turned loose in Sean Payton’s offense… until they announced he wasn’t starting!? And… Taysom Hill IS?! It’s some strange voodoo down in NOLA… but maybe it might work?! I think Hill has shown enough in flashes to suggest he could be an interesting offensive weapon – best believe I’m starting him in multiple fantasy leagues this weekend – and the Falcons LOVE scoring and conceding points. I have no idea what to expect from Taysom, but I expect points from these two teams.

Over whatever the line is (Lions @ Panthers) – So at the time of writing, this game is “off the board,” which makes including it in my picks very difficult. Anyway – whatever the line is – I like the over. Matt Stafford is confirmed to be playing, looks like Teddy Bridgewater will be also. Both QBs are having good years, and both defenses are fairly suspect. I’d envisage the line being somewhere around the 50 mark, maybe a little below, but I like that. Detroit tried their best to let Washington steal one last week, and even without DeAndre Swift AND Kenny Golladay, they should have enough weapons (I’m looking at you both, TJ Hockenson and Marvin Jones…) to push this total up and over.

(SECRET PICK – I refuse to bet Unders on principle, but the weather is supposed to be bad in Cleveland again this weekend… so Under 47.5 Eagles @ Browns feels like a great pick. BUT life’s too short to bet the under. It really is)

The Parlay (Complete Parlays 0-5, Correct Legs 14-10-1)

3-2 last week… would’ve been 4-1 if not for, y’know… Nick Chubb… The Seahawks laying an egg vs the Rams was a surprise but softened the Chubb blow a bit. Anyway, the parlay…

Browns -3.0 (vs Eagles) – I KNOW, I KNOW, I KNOW. But yes – we’re back on the Browns. No Myles Garrett is a bit annoying, but the rest of that defense has stepped up in recent weeks, and the two-headed monster of Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the run game should be enough to dominate a subpar Philly team. Don’t be surprised if Baker looks good with play action after the run’s been established too. Browns please.

Bengals +1.0 (@ Washington) – As previously mentioned, I believe in Joseph Burrow. I don’t believe in Washington. It’s really that simple. I’m surprised that the Bengals are the underdogs, though I guess the lack of Joe Mixon contributes to that. Washington are the team that just refuse to die; they’re down 14 at half time every week, and end up coming back. This week, I think Burrow will want to outshine Chase Young – a battle of the 1 & 2 picks from last year’s draft – and light the Football Team up. Tee Higgins looks set to play which helps as well. Gimme the Bengals.

Titans +5.0 (@ Ravens) – Lamar needs a bounce back… but I don’t think this is the team he wants to face. The Titans are coming off a mini bye (haven’t played since last Thursday), and completely bamboozled the Ravens in the playoffs last year. There may also be no Calais Campbell for the Ravens run defense, which leaves so much opportunity for Derrick Henry to really start rumbling. The Ravens may well find a way to get some revenge for last year and win this one, but I think Tennessee will keep it close regardless. Take the Titans and the points.

Dolphins -4.0 (@ Broncos) – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Dolphins are roooooooooolling. Now, has Tua played in altitude before? I dunno. Are the Broncos still bang average at best? Absolutely. Brian Flores is putting together a “Coach of the Year” season resume, and the Dolphins should be 7-3 after Sunday. 

Chargers -9.5 (vs Jets) – We’ve already touched on this;I like the Chargers… So, let’s not waste time. Despite the fact that last time out, Joe Flacco pushed the Patriots close… and the Chargers seem incapable of winning a game in normal fashion… which makes this is perhaps the secretly riskiest pick in the parlay this week. That said, it’s still the Jets. They’re 0-9. Justin Herbert wants to come out and make headlines for something other than his haircut. Believe in LA this week.

£10 on this Parlay pays around £270 depending on your bookmaker. 

The Full English (Season Record: 48-18)

A nice 11-2 again last week pushes the season record to a (even if I say so myself) respectable 48-18. A little over 72%. Decent all things considered. 

Here’s the week 11 slate:

Falcons @ Saints – Saints (This is the weirdest game of the week. Who knows what Taysom is going to do, but I believe the Saints are a good enough team to win without Drew Brees).

Bengals @ Football Team – Bengals

Lions @ Panthers – Panthers

Patriots @ Texans – Texans (I think this might be a “Deshaun Watson” game. Texans would be better off if they lost, but Deshaun ain’t up for tanking)

Eagles @ Browns – Browns

Steelers @ Jaguars – Steelers (10-0, perfect season alert, not sure if they make it to 16 wins, but they’ll add a 10th this weekend. 

Titans @ Ravens – Titans

Dolphins @ Broncos – Dolphins

Jets @ Chargers – Chargers

Cowboys @ Vikings – Vikings (But I wouldn’t be surprised if there WAS a little upset here… the cowboys are due for a bounce back and are not as bad as their record suggests they are)

Packers @ Colts – Packers 

Chiefs @ Raiders – Chiefs (they’re just too good)

Rams @ Buccaneers – Buccaneers

Week 12

Moving forward, week 12 gives us BOTH Thanksgiving Football AND NO BYE WEEKS! A full slate for our feast. I will endeavour to be back with a Thanksgiving Special (three interesting games!) before Thursday, and then the regular column for next weekend. 

Anyway, thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts. As always, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter & Instagram. Enjoy week 11! Stay safe, stay healthy. 

Callum Squires is an English writer, former NCAA athlete and Miami Dolphins fan.