Welcome back to another edition of The Picks Six, where we look ahead to see if I can accurately predict the outcomes, and then the Dallas Cowboys let me down and ruin everything. Sorry for the lack of a column last Sunday – life got in the way. Probably a good thing overall, I would definitely have been backing . Don’t even get me started on the TRAVESTY that was the Cowboys on thanksgiving. Talk about ruining a great day. What a joke. I still hate Washington. Spoiler: Steelers by a million on Monday against the Football Team. Anyway, moving forward – we’re really into crunch time of the 2020 season with every win meaning so much from here on in. There’s a lot of games with large lines this week… I don’t really like many of the underdogs but you do wonder if some will be able to keep the games close. Let’s dive in and improve our 56-23 record on the Full English for the season.
1st and Goal from the 1yd Line
This is my nailed on – has to happen – pick of the week. What do you want when you’ve had a horrible loss the previous week? To face the New York Jets this week. That’s the right answer. So we have to ride with Las Vegas this week. The Raiders are the only team to have beaten the defending Super Bowl Champs so far this year, and yet got absolutely destroyed by the inconsistent Falcons last week. Hard to read. However, facing the most consistent team in the league – the Jets – will help. They’ve been consistently atrocious. Yes, there’s no Josh Jacobs, but Devontae Booker will fill in fine. Derek Carr needs to stay calm, but that shouldn’t be tough against Adam Gase’s tanking trainwreck. Raiders to win.
45yd Field Goal
This one is not a straightforward pick, a bit more of a 50/50 shot.
Seahawks -10.5 vs the Giants.
Seattle’s defensive woes are well documented but, now they have their star running back reinserted into their line up, they should be able to control the pace vs New York. Russ should be able to cook, even against a Giants defense that has sneakily been getting better as the season has gone on. Believe in Seattle, as they fight their way to the NFC West crown. Seattle -10.5.
This week, we like a couple of Tight Ends and the most underrated running back in the league:
TJ Hockenson – Still no Kenny Golladay for the Lions, and with D’Andre Swift potentially out too I like Hockenson as one of their go to guys.
Mike Gesicki – it’s still Fitzmagic in Miami, and Fitz loves Big Mike. Gesicki caught a touchdown last week, and I’ll back him to do it again against a poor Bengals defense.
Chris Carson – Please show this man the respect he deserves. He destroyed the Eagles on his way to the end zone last week. With Hyde out, you’ll see a lot of Carson. He should score.
£10 on this treble pays about £130 depending on your bookmaker.
If you don’t like the above options, I think Austin Ekeler & Justin Jefferson are equally good options, with slightly shorter odds.
Over 51.0 – Jaguars @ Vikings – The Jaguars LOVE giving up points. Their defense is not that of the famed “Sacksonville” name. The Vikings were quite porous to the Cowboys a few weeks back themselves, so I can see this one going over, with Justin Jefferson having a big day and the Jags focus in on the returning Adam Thielen.
Over 45.5 – Saints @ Falcons – You could argue that the Saints D has been so good lately that taking the over here is foolish, but the Falcons have enough weapons to intrigue here, and Taysom and the Saints weapons have been rolling of late. Even Latavius Murray had a big game last weekend. Take the over here too.
Raiders -7.5 – Yes, I wish the line was a flat 7, or maybe even 6.5… but you’ve gotta believe Vegas has enough to shut down the Jets
Saints -3.0 – Taysom has filled in fantastically for Drew Brees, keeping the Saints’ winning run going. Hard to believe the Falcons will have grown so much from beating the Raiders to defeat the current #1 seed in the NFC.
Texans +3.0 – Can’t trust the Colts (more on this later), so we’ll take the Field Goal as Deshaun Watson seeks to continue his nice little run of performances.
Lions +3.0 – I actually think Detroit might win this game outright… but let’s take the +3 here against a Bears team that is lacking both confidence and quality on offense.
Chargers -1.5 – I’ve been burned too many times by New England this year. This is probably the least secure pick here, but I’m just not trusting Cam Newton to be MVP Cam again right now.
£10 on this five-fold returns about £250 depending on your bookmaker.
The Full English (Season Record: 56-23)
Bengals @ Dolphins – Dolphins (who will now be 8-4…!!!)
Browns @ Titans – Titans (I’m leaning Titans largely because of how unstoppable Derrick Henry has been of late)
Lions @ Bears – Lions (the new coach bounce for Detroit? I find it hard to believe in anything Matt Nagy is selling right now)
Colts @ Texans – Texans (This is maybe the hardest game to call this week for me. I’m not convinced AT ALL by the Colts offensively, but they’re very stout defensively, and it’s hard to know how Houston will react to losing Will Fuller, but getting David Johnson back from injury… I’m taking a risk and leaning Texans).
Jaguars @ Vikings – Vikings
Raiders @ Jets – Raiders
Saints @ Falcons – Saints
Rams @ Cardinals – Cardinals (I like Kyler to get back to winning ways here. They really need it)
Giants @ Seahawks – Seahawks
Patriots @ Chargers – Chargers (this is also a toss up, but I’m thinking this could be a chance for Herbert to make a real statement against a sub par Patriots team. Having Ekeler back made a big impact last week. I’ll ride with LA)
Eagles @ Packers – Packers
Broncos @ Chiefs – Chiefs
Washington @ Pittsburgh – Pittsburgh (by the aforementioned MILLION)
Bills @ 49ers – Bills
Cowboys @ Ravens – Ravens (with how downright weird the Cowboys are, I won’t be surprised if they find a way to shock the world and win this game)
So we’re finally done with Bye weeks and can look forward to a full slate as we turn the corner into the home straight, and the final quarter of the NFL regular season. Highlights include the AFC North Silver Medal game between Cleveland and Baltimore, and one of the tougher tests left for the Steelers as they face the Bills. Should be good. Enjoy your week 13! As always, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter and Instagram – should you wish to discuss any of this – or how good Bruno Fernandes is – hit me up! Stay safe and healthy. Have a good one.
Callum Squires is a London based NFL writer, and good friend of NFL in London.