Hello! Welcome back to another edition of the Picks Six. Last week, we came AGONISINGLY close to winning our first 5-Game Parlay, but the Patriots decided to play like idiots and make the Jets look somewhat competent and Joe Flacco look like Joe Flacco from 8 years ago. Ah well. Still – went 11-2 last week on the Full English and overall on picking games for the season we’re now 37-16. Stay positive. We go again. There isn’t really a BIG marquee matchup this week, but there are plenty of interesting ones to get the pulse racing on Sunday night. Let’s go. 6 sections, lots of picks and tips, have fun and enjoy.
The 1st & Goal from the 1yd Line. (Season Record: 5-2)
The Patriots managed to get me another win in this category last week… but also managed to kill my parlay by failing to dominate the Jets… we’ll get to that later. Anyway, I’m feeling good about the simple ones. This week, with the Jets on bye, I can’t simply pick whoever is playing them, so instead we’re looking elsewhere for our lock of the week.
But look no further than another team that is failing to win it’s game on a weekly basis. Enter: the Jaguars. Jake Luton put together a fairly impressive debut against Houston last week, but much of it came in an attempted garbage time comeback as the Texans – in a touching tribute to Bill O’Brien – did their best to throw the game away at the last moment. This week, the Jags face a much stiffer task, in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Pack have – aside from a toothless performance in Tampa – been ruthless so far this year and I expect that to continue on Sunday. I even like the big spread (Packers -13.5), but for now let’s just take Packers to win.
The 45yd Field Goal (Season Record 0-6)
This is admittedly becoming a little embarrassing… it’s almost impressive that I’ve managed to pick the wrong side of the spread six times in a row. Last week, I’ll say I was very unfortunate the Jake Luton somehow brought the Jaguars back into the game late against the Texans, and that the Cowboys suddenly decided to play some defense and hold the Steelers to a tight game. THIS week, things must change. I feel great about these choices. Two picks, let’s get two wins.
Browns -3.5 (vs Texans) – I looooooove this one. I love this so much in every single direction. I love this so much it scares me a little (spoiler, this is also in the parlay) but let’s believe. The Browns – I’m just gonna go ahead and say it – are a GOOD football team. Not GREAT, but definitely GOOD. Baker has just had a week off to focus on this game, Nick Chubb is expected to be back, they’re getting some pieces back on defense… and they’ve still got Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and more catching passes. Against the Houston defense who tried to let Jacksonville steal a game last week? By 3.5 points?! I wish the line was still -2.5 (like it was earlier in the week)… but… even so… yes pleaseeeeee Cleveland.
Saints -10.0 (vs “very injured” 49ers) – This line is high and maybe I haven’t learned my lesson from the Steelers last week… but ALSO the Saints looked grrrrrrreat against the Bucs and the Niners looked D.E.A.D…. DEAD against the Packers. I don’t believe in Jimmy G, let alone Mullens or Beathard, especially lacking weapons like they are right now. I’ll take the Saints to run up the score on Sunday.
The Hail Mary Touchdown Treble (Season Record 0-1, Individual TD Picks 1-3)
This is my longshot from half field. Unlikely, but you never know. A Touchdown scorers Treble.
So I’m hitting the reset button on this segment, after going 1-4 last week on TD scorers, I’ve decided we’re gonna limit it to 3 selections and do a TD Treble each week. Shoutout Brandin Cooks for stepping up last week. You have my respect. This week, we’ve got a
Antonio Brown (Buccaneers @ Panthers) – I reeeeeally liked how often Tom Brady looked to AB last week. Mixed results, admittedly, but with the amount of other targets available, Brady’s eyes being drawn by Brown bodes well long term. He’s also massively overpriced in my opinion, so let’s ride with him.
Henry Ruggs (Raiders vs Broncos) – I expect Carr and the Raiders to test the Broncos deep, early and often, like the Chargers tried to with Williams and Guyton a few weeks back. Ruggs’ speed is insane. If he catches one in just a single yard of space – he goneeeeeeee.
Mark Andrews (Ravens @ Patriots) – I think New England will sell out to stop the run here. Even though everybody knows Andrews is the clear #1 aerial target for Lamar in the RedZone, that doesn’t make him easy to stop. Gimme the big Sooner.
£5 on this treble pays £150 depending on your bookmaker.
The Overs (Season Record: 3-4-1)
So we went 1-1 last week… should have been 2-0 but Tompa Bay decided to score THREE points. That’s it. Awful. Thankfully the Raiders and Chargers combined for 57 for us. This week, I’m loving the biggest line, as well as a mid range one.
Over 56.5 – Bills @ Cardinals – Yup. It’s a huge line. Yup. It’s a risk. Yup. This is Josh Allen vs Kyler Murray. We’re getting points. I’m craving another desert shootout after the Kyler vs Tua duel we lucked into last weekend. Let’s ride. Give us points.
Over 50.5 – Buccaneers @ Panthers – Not only am I giving Mr. Brady a chance to redeem himself this week, but I fully expect him to do so. The Buccaneers have reacted to strongly to their defeats so far this season, throwing up point after point in seeming anger. On the other side, good Ol’ Teddy Bridge has an impressive knack for covering the spread (this game is TB -5.5), so even without CMC I think Carolina keeps this close and pushes the total up. This goes over.
The Parlay (Complete Parlays 0-4, Correct Legs 11-8-1)
So close last week. 4-1. Just needed Cam and the Boys -8.5 against the Jets… ugh. You’re tacky and I hate you @ThePatriots. Let’s win it this week.
Browns -3.5 (vs Texans) – You already know.
Dolphins -1.5 (vs Chargers) – Miami are rolling. The Chargers always find a way to lose. Tuaaaaaaa.
Raiders -4.0 (vs Broncos) – Always hate these lines that are just over 3… but the Broncos are – for me – frauds, and shouldn’t even have the 3 wins they do. I’m not a Drew Lock guy. Give me Gruden and his Gang this week.
Seahawks +2.0 (@ Rams) – Aside from the fact that the Rams are coming off a Bye… this line makes ZERO sense to me. I think the Seahawks will get back to normal and win this outright. I’ll take +2 to be safer.
Vikings -2.5 (@ Bears) – The Monday Night Game again… but I love how the Vikings are playing right now… by limiting Kirk Cousins’ involvement. I also think the Vikings D is strong enough to stress Nick Foles into a couple of mistakes, especially as it looks like they MIGHT be without David Montgomery. Let’s hope we’re all winning by 4am Tuesday morning.
£10 on this Parlay pays around £250 depending on your bookmaker.
The Full English (Season Record: 37-16)
Texans @ Browns – Browns
Jaguars @ Packers – Packers
Eagles @ Giants – Giants (Underdog pick of the week… they’re scrappy and the NFC East makes no sense so let’s go with it)
Buccaneers @ Panthers – Buccaneers
Football Team @ Lions – Lions (all day long)
Bills @ Cardinals – Cardinals
Broncos @ Raiders – Raiders
Chargers @ Dolphins – Dolphins
Bengals @ Steelers – Steelers
Seahawks @ Rams – Seahawks
49ers @ Saints – Saints
Ravens @ Patriots – Ravens (Lamar to start his late season kick on Sunday night?!)
Vikings @ Bears – Vikings
Moving forward, week 11 starts with a bang on Thursday night with Seahawks vs Cardinals, though sadly that won’t be relevant for us here on Picks Six. But the Sunday slate has a few interesting revenge games, as the Ravens look to avenge last year’s playoff defeat to the Titans, and the Chiefs seek to erase their only loss of the season so far in the return match with the Raiders. Plus the Packers vs Colts could be interesting after the Colts decided to find some offense this week! Anyway, thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts. As always, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter & Instagram. Come chat and tell me why I’m deluded to think the Dolphins will be 8-3 in three weeks time. Believe in Tua!! Have a good one.
Callum Squires is a London based writer, and Miami Dolphins fan.