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The Picks Six

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Okay… well… let’s call that an inauspicious start. In the debut week of this column, my week 6 picks were… largely disappointing. My overall week predictions (9-5) salvaged my tips which did not have a particularly impressive showing. Largely, the blame for this falls squarely at the feet of two teams: The New England Patriots, who inexplicably made the beaten up Denver Broncos look like the ‘85 Bears, and the Cleveland Browns who… ugh… Browns-d it right up against the Steelers. Should I have seen that coming? Probably. Anyway, new week, new me! Let’s go again. Redemption starts here. Same concept: Six sections, including sure things, longshot punts and a prediction for every game. 

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The 1st and Goal from the 1. (Season Record: 1-1)

So somehow went 1-1 last week on this. Shoutout the Dolphins for doing what they were supposed to, even when Cam was too incompetent to do his job… 

Okay. Simple things. That’s what we’re looking for here. So… Who is the worst team in the NFL? Gang Green: The 0-6 New York Jets. And who are said Jets playing this week? Oh, the Bills of Buffalo? With one Joshua Allen at Quarterback? He who has a rocket arm and legs that carry his big sturdy frame forward at alarming speed and momentum? I like him. He wasn’t good against the Chiefs – but we’ll blame the conditions a bit – so I expect Josh to bounce back big here. The Jets are firmly planted in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. The Bills win this game. ZERO doubt.

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The 45yd Field Goal (Season Record: 0-1)

This line should be posted all over the Cowboys’ locker room walls. The UTTER disrespect… Dallas are ONE POINT favourites against the 1-4, very average, lacking in any real talent beyond Terry McLaurin and Chase Young Washington Football Team. Yeah, I get it: The Cowboys were awful on Monday. Dalton didn’t sling it like we were expecting (see, my over losing), Zeke’s hands have been replaced with sticks of butter, and their defense couldn’t stop a team of referees from picking up a first down. BUT this is still the Dallas Cowboys offense. Zeke will not keep putting the ball on the ground. The Cowboys should run (and throw) all over this team. Dallas Cowboys -1.0. Yes please.

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The Hail Mary (Season Record: 0-1)

So we need a long shot, or at least big odds for this one. There aren’t many underdogs I like on the board this week, so I’m sticking to heavily backing a favourite I love. I’m not sure if I’ve mentioned this yet, but the Jets are AWFUL. Even with Sam Darnold back, they’re not good enough to put a fight up against the Bills. The Bills defense held up quite respectably against the Chiefs passing attack, and Frank Gore is not going to run through the Bills like Clyde Edwards-Helaire did. Josh Allen will sling it, the Bills will score points. I like the Bills to win every quarter at 7/1. 

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The Over (Season Record: 0-1)

Oooooooh there could be some points scored this weekend… lots of tasty matchups which I can see disintegrating into shootouts and garbage time touchdowns. So I’m gonna rattle off a few here:

Browns vs Bengals – Over 50.5

Well, Baker HAS to bounce back. The Browns really need this game, but a scrappy Cincinnati team (who pushed the Colts close last week) can put up some resistance. The Browns have been quietly very good on offense aside from in their two lopsided losses. I don’t think they lose this game; I think they score 30+ on a below-par Bengals defense. Joe Burrow is good enough and determined enough to keep himself in the game – despite the absence of Joe Mixon. Points. 

Lions vs Falcons – Over 55.0

Yep, the line is high, but Stafford and Ryan could very legitimately shred each other’s DBs all afternoon long. D’Andre Swift has started to break out a little bit, and Gurley and Hurst are providing a nice compliment to Atlanta’s stacked WR room. It’s high, but I think it’ll get there. 

Seahawks vs Cardinals – Over 56.0

Another high line, but the newly-flexed Sunday Night Football matchup is one of the most electric of the weekend. Russ gets back in the kitchen, ready to cook after his bye week. Kyler is fast becoming the one rival to Lamar’s title of biggest dual threat Quarterback. Hopkins, Kirk and Fitz vs Lockett, Moore and Metcalf. Carson vs Drake. Carroll vs Kingsbury. Nobody on the field will want to defend. 28 points each has been almost a guarantee for these two teams so far. Let’s keep that run going. 

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The Parlay (Winning Parlays: 0/1, Winning Legs: 3/5) 

Browns -3.0

I know. I know. I know. We took Cleveland last week, and they burned us. I know. BUT this is a new week, and much less formidable defense for Baker to throw against. The Browns torched the Bengals earlier this season and I think a Cleveland win by a TD or more is likely. 

Panthers +7.0

Now, I do think the Saints win this game, but Teddy Bridge is good enough to keep it close. 7 points feels like a lot for a Saints team who – whilst coming off a bye – are missing their top two WRs to injury and the COVID-list. I expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Mike Davis respectively. Tight game, Saints win, Panthers cover the 7 points. 

Cowboys -1.0

See above… this line feels fraudulent. The Cowboys comeback story arc starts here. 

Bills -10.0

Yuuuuuuup, it’s a lot of points. How many did the Jets lose by last week? 24!? 24 to 0!? Against the Dolphins!? Okay, ha, yeah, definitely Bills -10.0.

Patriots -2.0

Bill is angry. Cam is angry. Stephon is angry. The whole of Boston is angry. The Patriots conspired to lose a game where their opposition didn’t score a Touchdown… HUUUUUH!? Yup. Somehow, that’s what happened. But this is the perfect bounce back game. Bill gets to shut down the guy he traded away. I don’t believe Jimmy G is good enough to beat the team who had earmarked him as the heir to TB12. They traded him for a reason. Shanahan will have some plans cooked up, but I think the Niners are still too injury ravaged to hand the Patriots another loss. 

£10 on this parlay pays about £235 depending on your bookmaker.

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The Full English (Season Record: 9-5)

Bills vs Jets – Bills

Panthers vs Saints – Saints

Browns vs Bengals – Browns

Washington vs Cowboys – Cowboys

Lions vs Falcons – Falcons

Packers vs Texans – Packers

Steelers vs Titans – Steelers (But this is such a toss up, won’t be at all surprised if Tennessee win)

Buccaneers vs Raiders – Buccaneers (piss off please Covid… I want to watch this game)

Jaguars vs Chargers – Chargers

Chiefs vs Broncos – Chiefs

49ers vs Patriots – Patriots

Seahawks vs Cardinals – Seahawks

Bears vs Rams – Rams 

Enjoy your week 7! As ever, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter & Instagram. Let me know if there’s anything else you’d like to see me discuss or suggest picks for… Come chat and tell me why I’m wrong and your team is going to win this week. Jets fans need not contact me. Cheers.

All lines accurate as of 11pm Friday.

-Callum Squires is a British writer and former college athlete in America

The Picks Six

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Yo! Welcome to the first edition of The Picks Six. This is a new concept, so bare with me whilst I figure it out. But each week I’m gonna give 6 types of picks or tips for the upcoming slate of games. Each category is a little different; some are sure fire “this is definitely going to happen,” and some are long shots “this is a bit of a dream but it’s plausible at least.” Like for example last week. I thought the Dolphins had a great shot at upsetting the 49ers. And they did. Wish I’d started this column last week now… We’ll keep track of how I do in each category so you can know which ones to trust and which ones to laugh at. 

Anyway… for us Brits, this week’s Sky Sports Slate of games is absolutely electric. Steelers vs Browns, Buccaneers vs Packers, Rams vs 49ers (ehhhh okay not great), Bills vs Chiefs AND Cardinals vs Cowboys? 4 out of 5 are legitimately must see. But if I can avoid watching Jimmy G I will absolutely do so, so let’s just pretend that game isn’t happening for the rest of this article? Cool! Let’s get stuck into my picks. 

1) The 1st and Goal from the One 

This is my lock of the week. A sure fire winner surely. 

I’m very tempted to pick the Panthers to beat the (extremely fraudulent, sorry not sorry Wade) 4-1 Bears, but I’m not quite as confident in that as a couple other options this weekend. It’s two AFC East teams, and I just cannot see any way they lose this weekend. I’m talking about the Patriots and the Dolphins. New England have seemingly survived Cam’s corona scare… and he’s back this week to face the fairly unfortunate Broncos, who have been decimated by injuries and then this week had the story of Melvin Gordon getting a DUI. It’s not been great for Denver, and I don’t think their luck changes on Sunday. Belichick can see a glimmer of light at the top of the AFC East after the Bills lost on Tuesday night. I’m taking the Patriots to win in comfortable fashion. BUT – as a bonus for the first week of this column, I’m also taking the Dolphins, who face the newly LeVeon Bell-less Jets. Adam Gase man… where do you even start? Probably best to make this quick. Brian Flores has the Dolphins playing great football and winning games. The Jets are absolutely horrific. I feel (for once) very confident that my Fins get their 3rd win of the season on Sunday.

2) The 45yd Field Goal (around even odds)

This is my mid-range, toss up of the week. 

So my pick is going to Green to beat Tampa in the matchup I’ve dubbed “battle of the bays.” I’m sure that’s copyrighted by someone else but hey, it sounds good. Tommy B has been up and down since relocating to Florida, and AA Rod is in the middle of his “how dare you not rank me in the top 10 of the NFL 100” revenge tour. It’s hard for me to understand why the Packers are ONLY favoured by a solitary point here coming off a Bye last week. I know the Buccaneers defense is tasty, but Aaron Jones and the (hopefully) returning healthy Davante Adams are too electrifying to stop, and they’ll both benefit from having the other in the lineup. Let’s go for Green Bay -1.0.

3). The Hail Mary (4/1 or longer)

This is my shot from half field. Unlikely, but you never know. 

The AFC North is fast confirming itself to be – alongside the NFC West – the best division in Football. The Ravens, Steelers AND (surprisingly) Browns are all proving themselves to be playoff calibration teams, with potential SuperBowl aspirations. Big Ben’s comeback player of the year campaign is off to a flyer, and rookie WR Chase Claypool set the Fantasy Football world on fire last week with 45 points in his 4TD demolition of the Eagles. Cleveland faced their toughest defense (since the Ravens in week 1) and dismantled the Colts with relative ease. Baker looked good, Kareem Hunt is running like he did in Kansas City, and OBJ has maybe got his mojo back. I’m so excited for this matchup. BUT I think this really means a lot to the Browns. They’re used to getting eviscerated by Pittsburgh and, after the “contentious” ending to last season’s second matchup (you know, the one with the attempted murder??), I think Myles Garrett will be out for… errr… sacks!? Cleveland are the underdogs but if they can get the run game going they can limit the Steelers’ time of possession. Ben will always air it out to try and catch up but I think the Browns have enough to not only upset the Steelers but win by a wider margin than expected.

We’re gonna go Cleveland Browns to win by 7-12 points. 

4) The Over

I like points. Sue me. Give me 45-44 over 17-14 every day. I’m a Big XII guy. Points points points. Throw the ball. So, I’m using this section to look at the points totals and pick an over that I like. 

Cardinals @ Cowboys – Over 55.0

Yeah, it’s a high line, but this has “shootout” written all over it. I love the Cardinals. I absolutely love them. They’re so exciting. Kyler is a speed demon. Hopkins is – for me – the best receiver in the league. Their run game has struggled but we all know Kenyan Drake could just turn it on one week and blow people away again. And then you’ve got Dallas. Firstly, get well soon Dak. Secondly, Andy Dalton is… not Dak Prescott, but has a better set of weapons in Dallas than he EVER had in Cincinnati. Lamb, Cooper & Gallup can cause Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals DBs a lot of issues, creating space for Zeke between the tackles, especially now Chandler Jones is done for the year. But Kyler and Hopkins will feast on a suspect Cowboys secondary that made the Giants look like an offensive powerhouse at times last week. I’m excited to see these two offenses beat up on the defenses on Monday Night. 

5) The Parlay

A little 5 team accumulator for the people. 

Titans -3.5 (how are Tennessee, who are 4-0, only -3.5 against a 1-4 Houston team?!)

Dolphins -10.0 (yeah, it’s A LOT of points for the Dolphins and Fitzmagic to cover… BUT… I mean… have you SEEN the Jets?)

Patriots -9.5 (Cam’s back, and the Broncos are broken. Even if Drew Lock plays, the New England defense is nasty enough to give him nightmares)

Browns +3.5 (I think they win outright, but the FG + a half point here makes this feel like a safe bet)

Lions -3.0 (Golladay back, Sacksonville ain’t what it used to be, Lions managed to beat the Cardinals – a GOOD team – earlier this year. I trust Stafford to win this game)

£10 on this pays about £260 depending on your Bookmaker.

6) The Full English

This is just gonna be my straight up, nice and simple, prediction for who wins every single game each week. We’ll keep a rolling total and win % for me and hopefully it’ll be a number significantly higher than 50…

ATL vs MIN – Atlanta

BAL vs PHI – Ravens

CHI vs CAR – Panthers

CIN vs IND – Colts

CLE vs PIT – Browns

DEN vs NE – Patriots

DET vs JAX – Lions

HOU vs TEN – Titans

WAS vs NYG – Giants

NYJ vs MIA – Dolphins

GB vs TB – Packers

LAR vs SF – Rams

KC vs BUF – Chiefs

ARI vs DAL – Cardinals

And that’s it! Can’t wait to get absolutely none of these right this week. Hope you enjoyed reading my thoughts. Fingers crossed you come back next week. I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter and Instagram if you wanna chat further. Have a good one!

All Lines and Totals accurate as of Friday 16th October at 15:00. 

Callum Squires is a London based writer, Dolphins fan and regular contributor to NFL in London. 

London 2020 Games

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Damn you Covid 19 for taking away the London NFL games for 2020. Imagine, we could be basking in the glow of having these four games played on our soil right now. But alas, that damn virus has other plans.

The NFL will be back. We can’t guarantee this, but with the amount that the NFL has invested in the UK, coupled with the huge appetite for NFL tickets, it seems pretty dang likely.
Tottenham literally changed its stadium to accommodate the game, and tied in sponsors and partners to make the game happen here, so all signs point to the NFL returning to London, and potentially other places in the UK.
Liverpool and Manchester have all signalled moves that they would like to adapt their stadiums to host NFL games in the future.
The only real question is when.

Earlier in 2020, when everything was rosy and had the potential for an amazing year, we took a stab at which teams would be coming to London for the 4 games split at Tottenham and Wembley equally.
We used some maths, insider tips and our own gumption to determine which teams MIGHT be coming to the UK for this year.
We have no idea if they were right or wrong, but we did use some logical inference based on previous years.
Here are the games we THOUGHT would happen.

Broncos vs Falcons
Week 3-Sept 27/ 20
Tottenham Stadium

Arthur Blank had confirmed that the Falcons were going to be hosting a home game in London, although he didn’t know who they would be facing. Given that the Jags usually host the last 2 games of the London series, we assumed that Atlanta would be one of the first games up.
London gets very busy in the autumn, and their are traditional events like Diwali that are big draws in the centre of town.
The NFLUK usually dresses Oxford Circus in NFL garb at the beginning of the season to get the UK crowd hyped for the start of the season.
We looked at other events scheduled, keeping in mind the London games signify the start of bye weeks, to give teams a chance to rest when they get home.
Given all of this information, and prospecting on the Falcons schedule, we chose an AFC/ NFC matchup between the Falcons and Denver Broncos.
Were we right? We’ll never know

Patriots vs Dolphins
Week 4-Oct 4/ 20
Tottenham Stadium

Part of what determines who comes to London is home attendance. If your team is struggling to draw home fans, then the league will move you up to chuck across the pond. The Dolphins have seen attendance dwindle in recent years, so they would be at the top of the queue to come over. Add to this the mercurial hurricane weather in Florida up til November, and Miami made sense.
You also have to look at which teams HAVEN’T been here in a while, and the Patriots are a prime candidate. The Brady-less Pats and a scorned Robert Kraft might not have the gumption to say no to the league, so this AFC East matchup would make sense.
We also had an inside tip from Boston that this was on the cards, so we went with our gut.
Again, we will never know if we were right.

Colts vs Jaguars
Week 7-Oct 25
Wembley Stadium

One of the takeaways from previous NFL in London games, is that the NFLUK generally likes to schedule games around the time change. This makes the difference between the east coast only 4 hours, as the US time changes happen on different weekends. They have also made an effort to finish the UK games before America gets hit with November holidays.
Jacksonville Jaguars were due to play 2 games at Wembley, with a division rival being one of the prime targets. Since Indy hadn’t been to the UK in ages, and Phillip Rivers was at the helm, we assumed that this would be a logical bet.
Too bad, because this would have been a heck of a game.

Lions vs Jaguars
Week 8-November 1/20
Wembley Stadium

Detroit Lions were another team we were secretly told was on the chopping block for a trip to Blighty.
Their home attendance was at Covid levels even before the virus was discovered, and they hadn’t been to London in a few years.
These dates also branch over the time change, so week 7 and week 8 were the Jaguars weeks here we assumed with a great deal of certainty.
Ending the UK games by November 1st also allowed the teams to return to the chaotic November schedule, and the start of the REALLY rainy season in the UK.
Did we get this one right? We’ll never know.

Optimism is rampant for the 2021 games, as the MLB has confirmed that their 2020 games will be moved to 2021 in London. Will the NFLUK follow suit?
Hopefully, but it’s too hard to say at this point.
This damn virus is showing no signs of weakness, and adapts more than the Terminator.

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