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Callum’s Week 11

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Hello! Welcome back to another edition of the Picks Six. Last week, we had some good (both Overs), some bad (Nick Chubb running out at the 1yd line…), and an 11-2 record in the Full English section! Pretty good. This week, there are genuinely the most games for a while where I’m scratching my head saying “I really don’t know which way I think this will go.” This is a dangerous position to be in, because I could either be perfect or awful due to these toss ups. I’m concerned, but excited. Let’s go. 6 sections, lots of picks and tips, have fun and enjoy. 

The 1st & Goal from the 1yd Line. (Season Record: 6-2) 

The Packers tried their best to make us sweat a little on this one last weekend, but managed to repel the surprisingly stubborn Jake Luton and the surprisingly stout Jacksonville defense in the end. We’re on a bit of a roll here in this section – so let’s keep it going!

After a brief one week break… We’re back to picking against the Jets gang!! It’s too easy – but how can you go against it? Justin Herbert has been great in his rookie season, and the Jets have been nothing short of abysmal almost from start to finish. The Chargers aren’t the most normal or reliable of teams – every game with them involved seems to have some weird quirk or another – but they’re more than talented enough to beat New York here. LA Chargers to win.

The 45yd Field Goal (Season Record 1-7)

CURSE YOU, NICK CHUBB. Running out at the ONE YARD LINE? This failure to cover Browns -3.5 ruined many people’s Sundays – not just mine – and also ruined my 2-0 bid in this category last weekend. Fortunately, Alvin Kamara was on hand to FINALLY drag us to a win!! The Saints -10.0 would not be denied, even with a somewhat concerning injury to Drew Brees. 

Anyway – finally – we’re on the board. This week, there are quite a few tight games across the board. I like TWO very slight underdogs. They are listed below:

Packers to win (@Colts)

I’m really unsure why the Colts are favoured here. Yep, they’re riding high off a nice win against the Titans, but their offense hasn’t really been electric this season. They’re relying on their defense to hold the opposition close and allow Rivers and his RBs (mainly) to slowly chip their way down the field. This week, Aaron Rodgers (who WILL have Davante Adams active) comes to town to try and tear down their castle walls. For me, that Packers offense is good enough to breach the Colts’ D. It is a toss up, but I’m leaning Cheese-Head. Packers to win.

Bengals to win (@Washington)

Joe Burrow is a big time player. He’s had an up and down first season in terms of results, but has shown more than enough to get the Cincinnati faithful excited about their future with Joey B as the face of the franchise. Conversely, Washington still seem to be struggling to find their identity. Yes, it’s great to see Alex Smith back starting games. I’m delighted he’s back healthy. However, it does also show that the Football Team are on their third starting QB of the season, and haven’t yet found the stability they would have hoped under first year head coach Ron Rivera. I’m riding the Bengals this weekend, largely because I trust Cincy’s QB, and don’t trust most of Washington’s team at all. Bengals to win.

The Hail Mary Touchdown Treble
(Season Record 0-2, Individual TD Picks 1-6)

This is my longshot from half field. Unlikely, but you never know. A Touchdown scorers Treble.

AB, Ruggs & Andrews all failed to find the endzone last week – frustrating and annoying! This week, we’re riding some Tight Ends to success…

Jonnu Smith (Titans, @ Ravens) – The Ravens HAVE to load the box to stop Derrick Henry. This opens up play action. Smith is very athletic and a great red zone target. I see it. 

Austin Hooper (Browns, vs Eagles) – This is the riskiest leg here, based on the weather and Cleveland leaning on the run, but Baker sure loves a TE target in the end zone. We saw Harrison Bryant catch two from Mayfield a few weeks ago, and Hooper is an elite receiver when given targets. Let’s ride it.

Taysom Hill (Saints, vs Falcons) – The Joker of week 11. You think Sean Payton is going to start his mobile QB and not have a couple QB runs scripted in the game plan for the red zone? No chance. Gimme Taysom to score (and probably throw for another couple too!).

£5 on this treble pays £140 depending on your bookmaker.

The Overs (Season Record: 5-4-1)

2-0!! We went 2-0!! The “Hail Murray” may have stolen the headlines, but Bills vs Cardinals was always guaranteed points, and TB12 on a bounce back against the Panthers didn’t let us down either. It’s nice when both the tips win!! This week…

Over 50.0 (Falcons @ Saints) – THIS is maybe the most intriguing game of the week. I was BUZZING to see Jameis Winston turned loose in Sean Payton’s offense… until they announced he wasn’t starting!? And… Taysom Hill IS?! It’s some strange voodoo down in NOLA… but maybe it might work?! I think Hill has shown enough in flashes to suggest he could be an interesting offensive weapon – best believe I’m starting him in multiple fantasy leagues this weekend – and the Falcons LOVE scoring and conceding points. I have no idea what to expect from Taysom, but I expect points from these two teams.

Over whatever the line is (Lions @ Panthers) – So at the time of writing, this game is “off the board,” which makes including it in my picks very difficult. Anyway – whatever the line is – I like the over. Matt Stafford is confirmed to be playing, looks like Teddy Bridgewater will be also. Both QBs are having good years, and both defenses are fairly suspect. I’d envisage the line being somewhere around the 50 mark, maybe a little below, but I like that. Detroit tried their best to let Washington steal one last week, and even without DeAndre Swift AND Kenny Golladay, they should have enough weapons (I’m looking at you both, TJ Hockenson and Marvin Jones…) to push this total up and over.

(SECRET PICK – I refuse to bet Unders on principle, but the weather is supposed to be bad in Cleveland again this weekend… so Under 47.5 Eagles @ Browns feels like a great pick. BUT life’s too short to bet the under. It really is)

The Parlay (Complete Parlays 0-5, Correct Legs 14-10-1)

3-2 last week… would’ve been 4-1 if not for, y’know… Nick Chubb… The Seahawks laying an egg vs the Rams was a surprise but softened the Chubb blow a bit. Anyway, the parlay…

Browns -3.0 (vs Eagles) – I KNOW, I KNOW, I KNOW. But yes – we’re back on the Browns. No Myles Garrett is a bit annoying, but the rest of that defense has stepped up in recent weeks, and the two-headed monster of Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the run game should be enough to dominate a subpar Philly team. Don’t be surprised if Baker looks good with play action after the run’s been established too. Browns please.

Bengals +1.0 (@ Washington) – As previously mentioned, I believe in Joseph Burrow. I don’t believe in Washington. It’s really that simple. I’m surprised that the Bengals are the underdogs, though I guess the lack of Joe Mixon contributes to that. Washington are the team that just refuse to die; they’re down 14 at half time every week, and end up coming back. This week, I think Burrow will want to outshine Chase Young – a battle of the 1 & 2 picks from last year’s draft – and light the Football Team up. Tee Higgins looks set to play which helps as well. Gimme the Bengals.

Titans +5.0 (@ Ravens) – Lamar needs a bounce back… but I don’t think this is the team he wants to face. The Titans are coming off a mini bye (haven’t played since last Thursday), and completely bamboozled the Ravens in the playoffs last year. There may also be no Calais Campbell for the Ravens run defense, which leaves so much opportunity for Derrick Henry to really start rumbling. The Ravens may well find a way to get some revenge for last year and win this one, but I think Tennessee will keep it close regardless. Take the Titans and the points.

Dolphins -4.0 (@ Broncos) – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Dolphins are roooooooooolling. Now, has Tua played in altitude before? I dunno. Are the Broncos still bang average at best? Absolutely. Brian Flores is putting together a “Coach of the Year” season resume, and the Dolphins should be 7-3 after Sunday. 

Chargers -9.5 (vs Jets) – We’ve already touched on this;I like the Chargers… So, let’s not waste time. Despite the fact that last time out, Joe Flacco pushed the Patriots close… and the Chargers seem incapable of winning a game in normal fashion… which makes this is perhaps the secretly riskiest pick in the parlay this week. That said, it’s still the Jets. They’re 0-9. Justin Herbert wants to come out and make headlines for something other than his haircut. Believe in LA this week.

£10 on this Parlay pays around £270 depending on your bookmaker. 

The Full English (Season Record: 48-18)

A nice 11-2 again last week pushes the season record to a (even if I say so myself) respectable 48-18. A little over 72%. Decent all things considered. 

Here’s the week 11 slate:

Falcons @ Saints – Saints (This is the weirdest game of the week. Who knows what Taysom is going to do, but I believe the Saints are a good enough team to win without Drew Brees).

Bengals @ Football Team – Bengals

Lions @ Panthers – Panthers

Patriots @ Texans – Texans (I think this might be a “Deshaun Watson” game. Texans would be better off if they lost, but Deshaun ain’t up for tanking)

Eagles @ Browns – Browns

Steelers @ Jaguars – Steelers (10-0, perfect season alert, not sure if they make it to 16 wins, but they’ll add a 10th this weekend. 

Titans @ Ravens – Titans

Dolphins @ Broncos – Dolphins

Jets @ Chargers – Chargers

Cowboys @ Vikings – Vikings (But I wouldn’t be surprised if there WAS a little upset here… the cowboys are due for a bounce back and are not as bad as their record suggests they are)

Packers @ Colts – Packers 

Chiefs @ Raiders – Chiefs (they’re just too good)

Rams @ Buccaneers – Buccaneers

Week 12

Moving forward, week 12 gives us BOTH Thanksgiving Football AND NO BYE WEEKS! A full slate for our feast. I will endeavour to be back with a Thanksgiving Special (three interesting games!) before Thursday, and then the regular column for next weekend. 

Anyway, thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts. As always, I’m @callumjdsquires on Twitter & Instagram. Enjoy week 11! Stay safe, stay healthy. 

Callum Squires is an English writer, former NCAA athlete and Miami Dolphins fan. 

Wade’s Week 10

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Like doing Charlie on a beach, the lines change as fast as the wind blows in week 10 of the NFL.
Having made my picks on our podcast for week 10, I have had to make some adjustments due to injuries, line-ups and weather for the games on Sunday.
Every good sports pundit should be watching the rosters and action prior to kickoff, even mediocre ones like me.
While I did take a bit of a beating in week 9, I’m still 24-4 on my upsets going into week 10.
Hopefully I can help you out here.

Week 10 is bringing some nasty weather with it. Predictions for middle America and the east coast point to strong winds and wet along the coast. Florida is also coming down from another late hurricane, which will make it moister than the front row of a Justin Bieber concert.

Here are some of my upsets for Week 10:

Texans (2-6) vs Browns (5-3)
Browns -4  +45.5

The line in this game has been changing all week thanks to the return of players on both sides.
Cleveland will have Nick Chubb and Wyatt Teller back, which will help them immensely to get the ball down the field. With OBJ out for the season. Mayfield is going to need to find some rhythm at home, which is predicated to be very windy and wet. Not too many long passes in this game, which is why the over/under went from 55 points to 45.5.
The Texans struggled against Luton and the Jags in week 9, and needed last minute heroics from DeShaun Watson to save the day. They will probably require that this weekend as well. Bradley Roby is due to return to the Texans D, which will help them out immensely.
The Bengals were able to toss the ball all over the Browns, so DW will also be looking to do that as well.
My initial prediction was that Cleveland should have no problems at home, and should easily cover. With the Texans getting healthier and the need for a crucial win, I like the Texans for an upset here.
I’m taking the under as well, as the weather looks very nasty.
Texans 21 Browns 18 

Broncos (3-5) vs Raiders (5-3)
Raiders -3.5  +50.5

Denver continues to thwart the paths of NFL teams in their wake, disrupting and demolishing teams that should beat them on paper. Despite numerous injuries, the horsey’s have been able to stay competitive, even though they have a losing record.
The Broncos are missing most of their defensive line, while the Raiders are missing most of their O-line. Fair trade? Denver should have some corner backs returning, which will allow them to pick off Carr when he does downfield with his wobblers.
While I picked Las Vegas initially to cover this game, I am turning more towards the antics of the Broncos to mess up their mojo in this game.
I like Denver to cover this one, and continue to cause waves in the league.
Raiders 26 Broncos 23

Washington (2-6) vs Lions (3-5)
Lions -4  +46

It really is a truly craptastic week of games on Sunday. There is a real ugly mess of matchups, and as someone who likes to wager, am looking to lay off on Week 10 given how many factors are up in the air.
Washington has played well for a bad team, their D has kept them in contests, while their quarterbacks spend most of their time breaking their own legs for fun. They have solid running backs, and Gibson should hopefully have a solid day against a Detroit D who is weak against RBs.
Detroit is as messy as the city itself, and with injuries to Flowers and Golladay, they will have to rely on the other guys to make the big plays. This could be too much for Marvin Jones and Hockenson, as the Washington team actually believe that they have a chance to win this division.
Washington Team is just playing too loose right now, and I like them to cover against a Lions team who continually disappoints at home.
Lions 27 Washington 25

Betting it

If you decide to parlay these picks, we suggest you try Bet365 which has some of the best NFL odds, as they offer bonuses for bigger parlays.
When you wager £10 on the 3 picks I made; Texans (-105) Washington (+110) Broncos (-110), you can get a return of £80.99, which is a tidy £70 profit.
Don’t bet what you don’t have, bet responsibly, don’t be an idiot.
Have fun, and good luck on Week 10!

 

Wade’s SB54 Prediction

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It’s the final game of the last decade, so who wins SuperBowl 54?
As you can see from the image above, I have already touted the 49ers to upset the Chiefs and win the big game.
Am I crazy? Did I smoke the wacky tobaccy?
Maybe, but let’s break it down.

First off, what a great game we are in store for.
I’m not just saying that because the Patriots aren’t in it this year, but that is a HUGE motivation when it comes to the excitement level for the big game.

We are also in the midst of a dynasty transition in the league. With Mahomes and Garoppolo at the helm, we are finally seeing a change in the league, and in the potential for the future.
No Brady, Brees, or Big Ben, this is a new horizon in the NFL.

Let’s look at how I see the break down of the two teams.

QBs

Mahomes is by far the superior QB in this match-up, but Jimmy G isn’t horrible, in fact he really hasn’t had to do anything. In the past few playoff games, the 49ers have employed the run, because it works. Fans are quick to say that Jimmy was useless in these games, but why throw when you don’t need to. Let’s not forget that he torched the Saints a few weeks ago, and has barely even used Kittle.
Mahomes on the other hand has had to come from behind the past 2 games.
Down 29 points to the Texans, the game relied on him to rally the team to over power Texas, and finally win the game.
The 49ers don’t let you come back from deficits like that, so it will be a long road for the Chiefs if they go down.
Jimmy will have a better game than you think.
Advantage-Chiefs

RBs

San Fran has the advantage here, as the Chiefs have had a mad lib of RBs since the start of the season. The 49ers have a triple threat of speedsters who will look to explode on the Chiefs D. KC was able to choke off Derek Henry, but these RBs are very different as they have buckets of speed to run roughshod over the backfield. They will keep hitting them with the run until they don’t need to.
Advantage-49ers

WRs

San Fran has been hurt in the receiver department with a slew of injuries this season. KC on the other hand has some of the fastest dudes in the league ready to bounce across the Miami field. The main difference here will be the secondary covering the WRs. San Fran has a great shut down unit, while the Chiefs might struggle in the back to stop the relentless pressure of Deebo and the boys. Tyreek will be looking at a Richard Sherman sized shadow all night.
Advantage-Chiefs

TEs

The battle of the beasts is here, as Kelce takes on Kittle in a hotly anticipated match-up for the ages. Kelce has had a heck of a season, and Kittle has continued to impress with his yards after catch explosiveness. I have to give the edge to Kittle here because of all the ways he can be used. Look for the Niners to use a trick play to their advantage with him.
Advantage-49ers

DEF

San Fran holds most of the cards here. Sure, the Chiefs have made some big improvements here, but they will still struggle to match the shutdown power of the 49ers speed and front 4. It will be up to the Chiefs to try to shake up the momentum of the Niners, and make them miss.
This will be their biggest challenge.
Advantage-49ers

In the end, I think that the 49ers will prevail, for the reasons outlined above, and in general.
-the 49ers have used the rush because they haven’t needed to toss.
-the Chiefs have had to come from behind in every game-not a good sign.
-the 49ers D is too good.

So my final prediction-the 49ers win by a field goal.

Come join us at Long Acre London in Covent Garden. See you Sunday!

 

 

SuperBowl Quiz

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Where are you going for the SuperBowl? Are you watching at home? With friends? Or hitting the town to paint the town red, white & blue?

If you’re in London or close by, please feel free to join us at the Long Acre pub in Covent Garden for an epic night of NFL.
We will have loads of great food, cold beer & plenty of TVs to watch the big game.
They will also open up the basement for fans should we sell out the top floor.

What are you going to do before the 11:40pm kickoff?
If you’re joining us at the Long Acre, feel free to sign up for our NFL Quiz, an interactive, video quiz that we will beam across the pub.
Just watch the screen, and the questions will appear in video form.
Cool, huh?

Our quizmaster is none other than our very own Wade McElwain.
Wade actually writes and produces quiz and trivia shows during the day, so this is a perfect chance to see his mad skills in action.

It costs £10 per team to play (you need a ticket to get in as well) & you can win some fab prizes thanks to BetRegal, DraftKings, and the Long Acre.

Make sure you get your team together now!

Tickets for the quiz can be found here, as well as entry tickets.

https://www.designmynight.com//london/bars/leicester-square/the-long-acre/superbowl-54

We will also be doing loads of fun bets with our friends at BetRegal as well.

See you SuperBowl sunday!

 

Week 14 Preview

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It’s the Week 14 Preview podcast, where Wade and Ryan run through some of their picks and predictions.

s They also look at both of their records thus far in the season, with Ryan averaging a 46% success rate at betting against the spread. Wade has a wholloping 65% success rate, putting him higher than most Vegas pundits.

Want Wade’s best tips for this week without having to listen to his boring ass voice on the podcast.
Here are his picks for Sunday.

Bills cover vs Ravens (-6)
Redskins cover vs Packers (12.5)
Broncos cover vs Texans (-9.5)
Saints (-2.5) cover vs 49ers
Bengals cover/win vs Browns (-7.5)
Falcons (-3) cover vs Panthers
Vikings (-13) cover vs Lions
Dolphins cover vs Jets (-5.5)
Bucs (-3) cover vs Colts
Jags cover vs Chargers (-3)
Patriots (-3) cover vs Chiefs
Pittsburgh (-2.5) covers vs Cardinals
Raiders cover/win vs Titans (2-5)
Seahawks win vs Rams (NL)
Giants cover vs Eagles (-9.5)

Listen to the whole podcast and take Ryan’s tips as well!
See how you do.

Join our BetRegal page so you can grab some get NFL betting options.