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In this article, we’ll provide you with our top football betting picks and advice for the Week 6 slate of Sunday games. This week, we’ll have predictions on the New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams matchups. We study the odds, betting lines, teams, and players to give you our recommended betting picks to beat the New Jersey sportsbooks.
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) – O/U: 44
Sunday, October 13, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Jaguars (ML: -130)
We’ve got a matchup of two unfamiliar opponents as the New Orleans Saints hit the road to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Saints have been impressive since Drew Brees went down with an injury, winning three straight games to improve to 4-1. However, one of our top betting picks will be the Jaguars to win outright, instead of covering the one-point spread. Let’s dive into the facts to see why we’re heading in this direction.
Betting Lines Analysis: Saints at Jaguars
This line actually opened as a pick-em’ but the Jaguars have since moved to -1. It’s a nice case of reverse-line movement as Jacksonville’s spread grew and a little more than two-thirds of public bets are on New Orleans – 63 percent of all money wagered, though, is on Jacksonville.
The 44-point total interesting as well, considering there are 56 percent of public bets and an overwhelming 85 percent of all money wagered is on the total going under. Given those figures, we should probably expect a low-scoring game on Sunday.
Saints Betting Form
QB Teddy Bridgewater turned in one of his best games as a pro last week, throwing for 314 yards and four touchdowns in a win against the Buccaneers. However, this week’s matchup comes against a tough Jaguars’ defense that’ll be returning their top cornerback to the lineup. They’ll need to rely on the running game a lot more, which should be doable, considering the Jags are allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game (136.6) – this could mean good things for Alvin Kamara and even Latavius Murray if the defense doesn’t make the necessary adjustments.
The Saints’ defense has gone 31 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. So it goes without saying that this matchup against the Jags will be an outstanding one to watch. Jags RB Leonard Fournette has rushed for 100 yards in each of the last two games after a slow start to the season and leads the NFL in yards after contact.
Jaguars Betting Form
Jacksonville’s offense has been a pleasant surprise so far this season. QB Gardener Minshew has nine touchdowns and only one interception, which came in his first career appearance in Week 1 after taking over for Nick Foles. We mentioned the success that Fournette had over the last two weeks and that streak of Saints’ success against the run could certainly come to an end. Beating the Saints works when you’re physical with them, and this is certainly a team that is capable of that.
The return of CB Jalen Ramsey to the Jaguars’ defense comes at a great time with Saints WR Michael Thomas coming to town. We should expect the Jags to stack the box and make Bridgewater beat them with deeper throws – not a consistent recipe for success with Teddy B throughout his career. Not to mention, bringing a lot of pressure towards Bridgewater has worked for opposing defenses in the past.
Betting Pick: Jaguars (ML: -130)
Sometimes you just look at a spread and wonder why it’s not making sense. After all, the Saints have defeated three quality (or near-quality) opponents in a row and the Jaguars really don’t have an identity at this point. The oddsmakers are trying to tell us that Jacksonville will regain that powerful sense of pounding the ball and playing solid defense on Sunday. We’re listening, and taking the Jags to win outright as opposed to taking the one-point spread – it doesn’t cost much more by doing so.
Eagles vs Vikings
Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3) – O/U: 44
Sunday, October 13, 2019 – 1:00 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Vikings (-3)
The Philadelphia Eagles return to the scene of their only Super Bowl victory for the first time to take on the team that occupies U.S. Bank Stadium, the Minnesota Vikings. Not only did the Eagles win the title there, but they beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game to get there. Enough time has passed that we don’t need to play the revenge game, yet one of our top betting picks for the Vikings to cover the three-point spread. Let’s dive into the analysis to see why we’re heading in that direction.
Betting Lines Analysis: Eagles at Vikings
Public bettors are in favor of the Eagles, with 62 percent of the money heading their way. We’re more than happy to go against the public in this game, considering the Vikings are the home team and have had plenty of success under their own roof. Not to mention, they’ll only need to win this game by slightly more than a field goal.
In addition, both the public and sharp money are in favor of the total going over as about 70 percent of each side are going in that direction.
Eagles Betting Form
QB Carson Wentz will have a tough one on his hands. Playing at U.S. Bank Stadium has been incredibly difficult for opposing QBs, as only two (TWO!!!) of them have thrown for more than 300 yards and none of them have thrown more than two touchdowns in a regular-season game.
The Eagles sport the top run-defense in the NFL through five weeks, allowing 63 yards per game – they are also allowing the second-fewest yards per carry (3.2). Philly will need more of that same stinginess since Vikings RB Dalvin Cook has the second-most rushing yards (542) in the NFL with an average of 5.9 yards per carry – backup RB Alexander Mattison has 189 yards on the ground with an average of 5.6 yards per carry. It’s certainly a matchup they’ll need to win, considering their secondary has been getting abused with regularity.
Vikings Betting Form
If that Vikings’ running game can’t get off the ground, that’ll provide a good opportunity for QB Kirk Cousins to move the ball through the air. The Eagles are allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (271.2) with more than a few injuries to their players in the secondary – nearly all the guys that will be playing even have some type of ailment. That ranking was improved a bit from playing the Jets last week and they even recorded 10 sacks in the process. Don’t expect that to happen again this week.
The Vikings’ defense is pretty damn good, as we all know. To put exact numbers on it, they have allowed the fourth-fewest total yards per game (292.4), sixth-fewest passing yards per game (204.2) and ninth-fewest total yards per game (88.2). We mentioned those numbers in the Eagles’ section about opposing QBs at U.S. Bank Stadium, and that couldn’t be a better indicator of how well the Vikings play at home.
Betting Pick: Vikings (-3)
The Vikings are 18-2-1 ATS against non-division teams at home under head coach Mike Zimmer. Honestly, we don’t even think this one will be close. Minnesota has a little something extra when playing at home and the passing game should flourish big time against a banged-up Philly secondary.
49ers vs Rams
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) – O/U: 50.5
Sunday, October 13, 2019 – 4:05 p.m. EST
Betting Pick: Rams (-3.5 —> buy to -2.5)
A big NFC West battle goes down in Week 6 as the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers hit the road to take on the Los Angeles Rams. The whole world just saw the 49ers dismantle Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns on national TV last week, but our top betting pick of the week is for the Rams to cover a 2.5-point spread against the 49ers – that means you’ll have to buy an extra point just to make this a more favorable number. Let’s dive into the facts to see what we’re talking about.
Betting Lines Analysis: 49ers at Rams
It’s interesting that the public is backing the Rams like we are, with 62 percent of those bets going in that direction – 57 percent of all money wagered is on them too. Typically, the winning team on Monday Night Football will have a lot of public backing, but it appears like they have a lot of the same thoughts that we do.
As for the total, which increased from 48.5 to 50.5, the public and sharps are both putting plenty of money on the over. This is interesting, considering the 49ers’ defense has been spectacular, and it also lends some optimism to the thought that we might even see some defensive/special teams’ touchdowns in this game.
49ers Betting Form
The 49ers have some serious injury woes that’ll lead to their first loss of the season. Two offensive linemen, Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchy, and FB Kyle Juszczyk will all miss this game; these injuries are incredibly crucial to San Francisco’s running attack, which actually leads the NFL with 200 yards per game. Now, the Niners will have a sixth-round rookie starting at left tackle and a right tackle that was playing in the Alliance of American Football. Without their-usually dominant blockers, the 49ers’ offense is going to look a lot different – and that’s not a good thing.
This will put more responsibility on the shoulders of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, and we can make the argument that he’s not worth the hype since the torn ACL he suffered last season. The 49ers’ running game has been making things a lot easier for him, albeit against weaker defenses. Since the Rams have gotten torn to shreds in each of the last two weeks, we’d expect them to come out with an inspiring performance and that right all the wrongs.
Only the New England Patriots allowed fewer total yards per game than the 49ers heading into Week 6. However, we need to understand that they haven’t played a prolific offense like the Rams yet this season. LA and its boy-wonder head coach had three extra days to prepare for Sunday while San Fran had a day less. Expect this unit to take a HUGE step back this time around.
Rams Betting Form
The Rams have some injuries of their own, but they did have an extra three days of rest to prepare for this game. RB Todd Gurley, WR Brandin Cooks and CB Aqib Talib all have some sort of ailment that either limited or kept them out of practice this week – although, signs are encouraging that they’ll play.
Although the Rams have lost each of their last games, QB Jared Goff has thrown for a grand total of 912 yards. If it weren’t for a missed field goal against Seattle, LA would be 1-1 over that stretch and did have a chance to come back against Tampa Bay in Week 4.
A big factor in taking the Rams is the difference in days of preparation between the teams. Not only did those ailing players get more time to rest, but head coach Sean McVay and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips had a few extra days in their respective mad-genius labs. This factor cannot be understated – it’s a real thing.
We talked about the total being unusually-high for this game, and we really think that has a lot to do with the Rams’ defense getting in on the scoring. DT Aaron Donald should be able to cause some havoc up the middle while the DEs bring the heat from the outside against these inexperienced tackles. Creating turnovers is mostly due to getting pressure on the QB, and this is the perfect opportunity to do so, against a team playing on a short week.
Betting Pick: Rams (-3.5 —> buy to -2.5)
After writing about the two teams, it seems unnecessary to buy the extra point for the Rams but we’ll do it anyways – better safe than sorry. The 49ers will probably re-work their offense to fit the personnel better at some point, but doing it on a short week is a tough task for even a great head coach like Kyle Shanahan. The preparation factor is a major selling point here and we’re hopping all over the Rams because of it.
Make your bets and picks at US-Odds to get a New Jersey feel for your bets.
Good luck, and happy Sunday!
